Dwikorita Karnawati: The Impact of the El Nino Phenomenon is Not a Joke

JAKARTA - The Head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) 2017-2025 Dwikorita Karnawati reminded about the impact of the El Nino natural phenomenon which triggered extreme weather.

The phenomenon predicted to settle until early next year causes a very long and dry dry season, a decrease in rainfall, which triggers an environmental and economic crisis. Weather forecasts predict that this phenomenon could be the most severe, dubbed El Nino Godzilla.

Dwikorita explained that this time El Nino is moderate and can reach a strong level with a probability of around 60 percent. At the same time, it is also predicted that there will be a Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a phenomenon of sea surface temperature deviation in the Pacific Ocean that triggers a very dry dry season in Indonesia.

"So the level of drought is feared to be stronger than the usual El Nino, and it is called Godzilla (a fictional monster from Japan)," Dwikorita told Eddy Wijaya in the EdShareOn podcast which aired on Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

According to BMKG's predictions, the areas in Indonesia that are affected are mainly in the southern and western parts of Indonesia. For example in Sumatra, part of Java and Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, West Nusa Tenggara, and Bali. Meanwhile, in the eastern and central regions of Indonesia, the impact is called sporadic Dwikorita.

"The direct impact of El Nino is a water and food crisis. Not to mention health and pollution. Food is scarce, prices are expensive, and then trigger inflation. If all these pressures are accumulated, the inner atmosphere of the community will certainly not be calm," he explained.

Therefore, Dwikorita hopes that the government and the community are ready to anticipate the impact with mitigation measures. In the agricultural sector, for example, the government and farmers must adjust the pattern and types of plants planted. Namely by planting plant variants that are more resistant to drought conditions when there is little water.

Another step that can be prepared is weather engineering in the form of artificial rain before entering the dry season and filling reservoirs. Dwikorita explained, the Directorate General of Water Resources of the Ministry of Public Works and Housing together with BMKG modified the weather so that artificial rain clouds could be lowered in reservoirs, especially in NTT and NTB which are very dry. For preparation, the Ministry of Agriculture also provides water pumps to farmers. The pump sucks groundwater to be raised to the surface and channeled to irrigation.

Another sector that must be mitigated is health. According to Dwikorita, the condition of drought and the possibility of a food crisis in the next six months could trigger diarrheal diseases, respiratory tract infections (ISPA), and malnutrition in children. The predicted food prices are soaring, said Dwikorita, could spill over into the supply of Free Nutritious Meals (MBG).

"Logically, if the farmer fails to harvest or the price of food rises, will the MBG program not be disrupted? In the end, the nutritional intake for vulnerable people, namely children and the elderly, will be threatened," he said.

Not to mention the psychological impact that Dwikorita is vulnerable to facing the community which experiences economic and health pressures due to hot weather. What must also be considered is the area that has just been hit by landslides such as North Sumatra, West, and Aceh.

"In normal conditions, people are already in trouble, especially during disaster recovery such as in Sumatra; how is the sanitation and availability of clean water? Are you ready to go back?" said the Rector of Gadjah Mada University for the period 2014-2017.

Monday, June 8, 2026, the southern coastal area of Mindanao, Philippines, was shaken by a tectonic earthquake with a magnitude of 7.7 on the Richter scale at a depth of 47 kilometers.

The epicenter of the earthquake was located in the sea at a distance of 244 km northwest of Karatung Island, North Sulawesi, which caused damage to houses and public facilities in the Sangihe and Talaud Islands Regency. The shock was recorded by the Manado Geophysical Station causing 278 aftershocks.

Head of the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) 2017-2025 Dwikorita Karnawati said it was unlikely that the Philippine earthquake could trigger or activate the Palu-Koro Fault.

"Although the possibility is always there, but in probability it is quite small because it is 244-350 km from the fault area in the Philippines. However, this must still be closely monitored by BMKG," he said when talking to Eddy Wijaya in the EdShareOn podcast which aired Wednesday, June 17, 2026.

The Palu-Koro fault was discovered by researcher Yang Ting Wei from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Dwikorita explained, this fault, which has existed for millions of years, is a fault that triggered a massive earthquake in Palu, Central Sulawesi, in 2018.

From the OBS or Ocean Bottom Seismometer technology used by Yang Ting Wei, it was found that the Palu-Koro fault that divides the city of Palu is actually connected, extending into the bottom of the Sulawesi Sea.

The danger, said Dwikorita, is that the movement of the fault is at the bottom of the sea, it has the potential to trigger a significant undersea tsunami. "This fault is still very active. What is feared is if there is a sudden movement that awakens the giant energy," he explained.

Eddy Wijaya is a podcaster born on August 17, 1972. Through the YouTube account @EdShareOn, Eddy interviewed many national figures ranging from state officials, legal experts, political experts, national politicians, to local celebrities.

The man with a right cheek dimple is also a nationalist who is an activist for the marginalized and social observers by helping the community through the Wijaya Peduli Bangsa Foundation.

He is also active in the field of sports by serving as the Chairman of the Indonesian Equestrian Sports Association (Pordasi) Pacu and also served as Deputy General Chairman of the Indonesian Badminton Association (PBSI) East Jakarta.

Eddy also served as an Advisory Board of the Indonesian Chinese Social Marga Association, 2022-2026 term of office.

His ideas were formed because of his hard work to be independent from the age of 13 to be successful as he is now. For Eddy, the world of work is not as smooth as imagined, failure and rejection are common. This is what makes him hold on to the tagline "Success is just a matter of time". (ADV)