1 Million AI Satellites SpaceX Threatens to Become Space Garbage

JAKARTA - SpaceX's plan to put up to 1 million AI data centers in Earth orbit has begun to make scientists anxious. Citing a report by CNET, Friday, June 12, Elon Musk's ambitious project is considered risky for adding space debris, disrupting the ozone layer, and creating a "satellite graveyard" in space.

The plan appears in a document filed by SpaceX with the US Federal Communications Commission or FCC on May 29. Ten days later, Musk provided additional explanations through a video interview on X.

"Space is very big. It doesn't mean that space will be crowded," said Musk. He said the satellites are very small compared to Earth.

For SpaceX, a data center in space could be the answer to two major problems in the US AI industry. Many residents are opposed to data centers being built around their homes. Data centers also suck in large amounts of electricity and water.

However, scientists see another side. Currently, there are already more than 15,000 active satellites in orbit. If that number jumps to 1 million, the risk is no joke.

Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist who tracks satellite launches, was initially hard-pressed to imagine such a figure. But he cautioned that underestimating SpaceX is also often wrong. The company has repeatedly changed the way the space industry works.

The biggest concern is the altitude of the orbit chosen. SpaceX states that more than 500,000 satellites will be placed at an altitude of 946 to 1,002 kilometers. According to Hugh Lewis, professor of astronautics at the University of Birmingham, the area has long been problematic.

"This is not going to end well," Lewis said, quoted by CNET.

At this altitude, satellite debris is difficult to fall back into the atmosphere to burn. The atmospheric barrier is too low. This means that if the satellite is damaged, its body can last hundreds of years.

CNET wrote, NASA in 2006 estimated that space debris would continue to increase for 200 years, even without new launches. The main cause is collision activity at an altitude of 900 to 1,000 kilometers. Unfortunately, it is in this area that SpaceX wants to put up to half of its orbital data center.

The data center satellite is called AI1. In Musk's interview, its size was said to be 70 meters long and 20 meters high, with an area of about 1,400 square meters. That's about the size of an NHL hockey arena and about 12 times larger than the Starlink satellites that are commonly circulating now.

Hanno Rein, an astrophysicist at the University of Toronto, said the scale was hard to imagine. If a similar plan were proposed on Earth, the logistical challenges alone would be huge. In space, the problem is multiplied.

Another risk is Kessler Syndrome. This term refers to a state when one satellite collision creates thousands of fragments. The fragments then trigger the next collision. If it gets worse, the orbit can be too dangerous for satellites and space travel.

The problem does not stop at active satellites. After five years, FCC rules require satellites to leave orbit. SpaceX has been lowering Starlink satellites to burn up in the atmosphere. However, this method also raises questions.

According to CNET, a burning satellite can release aluminum and lithium particles into the atmosphere. A NASA-funded study published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2024 found that a 550-pound satellite can release about 66 pounds of aluminum oxide nanoparticles when it leaves orbit. These particles are feared to disrupt the ozone and exacerbate climate change.

SpaceX said the AI1 satellite will weigh about 6,600 pounds. That's much heavier than the V2 satellite, which weighs about 1,760 pounds.

To avoid atmospheric problems, SpaceX proposed another option, namely moving the dead satellite to an "Earth disposal orbit" or a heliocentric orbit.

An ejection orbit means that the satellite is pushed outside the low Earth orbit, which is a region of orbit that is relatively close to Earth, to about 2,000 kilometers. A heliocentric orbit means that the satellite is sent out of the gravitational influence of Earth to orbit the Sun.

It sounds neat. The practice is heavy. Lewis said the option of getting out of Earth's gravity requires a lot of fuel or years of time. During the process, the satellite must still avoid collisions.

There is also a risk on land. In a document to the FCC, SpaceX said the chance of casualties from falling debris was "less than 0.0001" and was considered zero. Rein disagreed. According to him, the figure is per satellite. If multiplied by 1 million, the risk becomes much more serious.

The case of debris is not a hollow story. Last year, farmers near Saskatoon found a Starlink satellite piece the size of a large laptop in their fields. Rocket parts have also fallen in Australia, Argentina, Algeria, and Poland.

This plan comes as SpaceX is also preparing for a major IPO. Rein assessed that some of the numbers in SpaceX's documents to the FCC did not feel solid. He found it difficult to distinguish between serious technical plans and those that were more like promotional material ahead of the IPO.

SpaceX's plan does offer a way out of the AI data center problem on Earth. However, according to scientists quoted by CNET, putting 1 million large satellites in orbit risks creating new problems that are much more difficult to clean up.