Rosneft CEO Warns of AI Bubble Risk and Global Electricity Surge

JAKARTA - The world is on the verge of the largest financial bubble since the 19th century's railroad boom, triggered by overvaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) technology. This was conveyed by Igor Sechin, CEO of Rosneft and Executive Secretary of the Russian Presidential Commission for Strategic Development of the Fuel and Energy Sector and Environmental Safety, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2026 Energy Panel.

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) is one of the main annual economic forums in Russia that brings together policymakers, business leaders, academics, and public figures to discuss strategic issues in the global economy. SPIEF 2026 was held in St. Petersburg on June 3-6, 2026 and discussed the global economy, future technologies, market stability, and international cooperation.

Rosneft itself is one of the largest oil companies in the world. In his report entitled "The Beginning of the End or the End of the Beginning: What Remains at the Bottom of Pandora's Box?", Sechin paid special attention to the various challenges facing the energy sector, the development of artificial intelligence, as well as the accompanying structural changes in the global economy.

According to Sechin, the energy industry is currently facing a chronic shortage of investment. The illusion of an energy transition that can take place quickly, as well as the lack of attention to the aspect of energy resilience, has led to reduced investment in conventional energy and the emergence of systemic imbalances.

This view is important for countries with increasing energy needs, including Indonesia. In the midst of digital economic growth, the expansion of data center infrastructure, cloud adoption, e-commerce, fintech, and the increasing use of AI, energy security issues are no longer only related to heavy industry or households, but also become an important part of the competitiveness of the digital economy. The Directorate General of Digital Infrastructure of the Ministry of Communication and Digital noted that Indonesia currently has 185 data centers with a capacity of 274 MW, and this capacity is targeted to increase to more than 2,000 MW by 2029.

Sechin also highlighted the increasing militarization of the global economy. World military spending has increased for 11 consecutive years, while most capital flows to three closely interconnected sectors, namely the military industrial complex, high technology companies, and the financial sector. In his view, Germany has effectively begun to direct its economy towards a war-based economy.

When discussing artificial intelligence, Sechin said that the world is on the verge of the largest financial bubble since the railway boom in the 19th century. Companies related to AI continue to attract an increasing share of global investment capital, while the benefits of increased productivity have not been fully proven in statistical data.

Sechin also recalled Robert Solow's paradox. According to him, about 70 percent of companies today use artificial intelligence, but in 90 percent of cases over the past three years, this use has not resulted in an increase in labor productivity. At the same time, this new technology requires the expansion of energy infrastructure on a large scale.

In Indonesia, the adoption of AI is growing rapidly, both at the worker and business levels. The Microsoft and LinkedIn Work Trend Index 2024 report notes that 92 percent of knowledge workers in Indonesia have used generative AI in the workplace, higher than the global average of 75 percent and 83 percent in Asia Pacific. On the business side, AWS and Strand Partners research in 2025 states that 18 million businesses in Indonesia, or about 28 percent of total businesses, have adopted AI solutions, with adoption growth reaching 47 percent annually.

However, the high use of AI does not always mean mature transformation. The same research notes that 76 percent of businesses in Indonesia still use AI mainly for basic needs such as efficiency and process simplification, while only 10 percent have reached the stage of more transformative AI integration in product development, decision-making, and business models. IBM's findings in 2025 also show that although 93 percent of Indonesian business actors are confident in implementing AI and 85 percent report operational benefits, infrastructure challenges, cybersecurity, ethical governance, and talent are still the main homework.

According to Sechin, the world is now entering a phase of structural growth in electricity consumption. Data centers currently consume around 500 TWh of electricity per year, and by 2035 this figure could increase to 1,200 TWh, or equivalent to Russia's current electricity consumption rate.

In Indonesia, the link between digitization and electricity needs is also beginning to be increasingly visible. The PLN 2025-2034 RUPTL targets an additional power plant capacity of 69.5 GW, with a composition of 42.6 GW of renewable energy, 10.3 GW of energy storage systems, and 16.6 GW of fossil-based plants. This plan shows that the increasing demand for electricity, including from the industrial sector and digital infrastructure, needs to be balanced with adequate energy investment, network modernization, and energy transition planning that still pays attention to supply security.

For Indonesia, digital economic growth requires not only talent, regulation, and connectivity infrastructure, but also a strong enough energy system to support increased electricity consumption from new technologies.