Researcher Says Defense Sector Consolidation Could Benefit 2029 Presidential Race

JAKARTA - Public policy and governance researcher Gian Kasogi assessed that there was a systematic expansion of the defense and military sector through a series of state regulations throughout 2024 to 2026. According to him, this pattern has the potential to become a major political capital leading up to the 2029 Presidential Election.

The statement was made by Gian in a public discussion entitled "Remilitarism and the Future of Indonesian Democracy: Revealing the Reform of the Defense Sector, Civil Supremacy, and Threats to Human Rights" in Jakarta, Friday, May 29.

In his presentation, Gian said the regression of modern democracy no longer occurred through military coups or the deployment of tanks on the streets, but through seemingly legal and administrative regulations.

"Democracy today collapses quietly. It creeps through articles, new bureaucratic structures, and the expansion of seemingly administrative authority," said Gian.

He assessed that the public has been less aware of the "interlocking regulatory mesh" that expands the functions of the military and the Ministry of Defense to various civilian sectors.

According to Gian, on the surface, various policies are framed with narratives of efficiency, modernization, national stability, to cyber threats. However, if read using the political realism approach, there is a long-term power consolidation design.

"Objectively, this opens up the opportunity for consolidation of the structure towards the 2029 presidential contest," he said.

Gian mapped at least four main regulations that were considered the foundation for the expansion of power. First, Presidential Regulation Number 151 of 2024 and Presidential Regulation Number 85 of 2025 which is said to change the role of the Ministry of Defense from a regulator to a strategic cross-sector operator.

Through this regulation, he said, a number of new structures were born such as the Logistics Agency, the National Reserve Agency, to the Information and Communication Intelligence Agency.

Second, Law Number 3 of 2025 concerning the revision of the TNI Law which is considered to expand the legitimacy of military involvement in the civilian sector.

"This regulation opens up space for the placement of active soldiers in civilian ministries and expands OMSP to the domestic area, ranging from cyber, national stability, to regional government assistance," he said.

Third, Presidential Regulation Number 202 of 2024 concerning the National Defense Council (DPN) which is considered to strengthen the new architecture of defense power.

According to Gian, the DPN no longer only serves as an advisory council to the president, but has evolved into a cross-sector coordination center, including geoeconomics.

"As a result, food, energy, investment, and cyber technology affairs are positioned as part of the country's defense structure," he said.

He called this condition a symptom of the governance security state, namely when almost all civil sectors begin to be seen as a state security issue.

In addition to regulations, Gian also highlighted the increasing involvement of military elements in various non-defense sectors. He alluded to the formation of the Forest Area Control Task Force (PKH), the involvement of the TNI in the Red and White Village Cooperative program, to the plan to form 750 Territorial Development Battalions.

According to him, these various policies show the expansion of the military's functions into the civilian sphere, which was not previously explicitly regulated in the TNI Law.

"But now soldiers are directed to plant rice, corn, produce soybeans, to be involved in food estate projects in Papua," he said.

Gian also highlighted the placement of military figures and retired TNI personnel in a number of strategic positions in the government and SOEs.

He said that the penetration reached strategic institutions and companies such as the National Nutrition Agency (BGN), Bulog, Garuda Indonesia, Antam, PT Timah, to MIND ID.

According to Gian, the accumulation of power can objectively become political capital towards the 2029 presidential election.

"When one circle controls food logistics, communication intelligence, cyber networks, territorial battalions in hundreds of districts, to the largest mining holding, then it automatically turns into a very large political capital," he said.

He assessed that political power in the future is not only determined by popularity and survey results, but also by the mastery of power infrastructure and national geoeconomics.

In closing his presentation, Gian said that this phenomenon should be seen as an alarm for Indonesian democracy.

"When security approaches are used to solve forest, cooperative, food, and mining issues, civil supremacy, human rights, and democratic space are being tested," he said.

The discussion also featured a number of other speakers, including the Head of the Indonesian Laboratory 2045 (LAB 45) Jaleswari Pramodhawardani, Director of LIMA Indonesia Ray Rangkuti, social-political analyst of the State University of Jakarta Ubedilah Badrun, lecturer at the National University of Firdaus Syam, Program Manager for Indonesia for Global Justice M. Aryanang Irsal, and legal researcher and strategic litigation Saiful Hidayatullah.