Market Focus on BI and FOMC, Rupiah Still Vulnerable to Weakening

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in Wednesday, May 20, 2026 trading is expected to weaken against the US dollar (USD).

To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Tuesday, May 19, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.22 percent to Rp17,706 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.29 percent to the price level of Rp17,719 per US dollar.

President Commissioner of HFX International Futures, Sutopo Widodo, assessed that the rupiah movement is still in a consolidation phase that is vulnerable to further weakening.

"On Wednesday, May 20, 2026, the movement of the rupiah is projected to still be in a consolidation phase that is vulnerable to continued weakening," he told VOI, Wednesday, May 20.

According to him, the main focus of market participants at this time is on the second day of the Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting, namely the market is waiting for a decision regarding monetary tightening, including the projection of a 25 basis point increase in the BI-Rate to 5.00 percent.

"The effectiveness of the "triple intervention" launched by the central bank in the spot market and DNDF will face directly with the cautious attitude of global investors who are waiting for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes," he said.

He added that technically, the movement of the rupiah is expected to be in the range of Rp17,670 to Rp17,760 per US dollar. In addition, the level of Rp17,700 which was previously a resistance area has now changed to the nearest support.

"Failure to maintain this area due to aggressive intervention actions can trigger a healthy correction (pullback) towards Rp17,650," he said.

However, Sutopo said that if the monetary policy response was considered less aggressive by the market, the trend of strengthening the US dollar was expected to continue with the next psychological target in the area of Rp17,800 per US dollar.