Sea Temperature Nearly Breaks Record, El Nino Can Make Earth Hotter

JAKARTA - World ocean temperatures are approaching record highs again. The European Union climate monitor warned that a new record could be broken in a matter of days when conditions begin to shift towards a potentially powerful El Nino.

Citing Arab News, Friday, May 8, Samantha Burgess of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said that sea surface temperatures in recent days were only slightly below the record high in 2024.

"It's just a matter of days before we set a new record for sea surface temperatures," Burgess told AFP.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service said daily sea surface temperatures in April continued to rise close to record levels. April was the second highest sea surface temperature ever measured.

Ocean heatwaves are also breaking records in waters between the tropical Pacific and the United States. This shows that the sea is storing a large amount of heat.

The World Meteorological Organization previously stated that El Nino conditions could form as early as May to July.

El Nino is part of the natural cycle of Pacific Ocean temperatures and trade winds. However, the impact can be felt around the world. This pattern can increase the chances of drought, heavy rain, and other extreme weather.

The problem is, this time El Nino comes when the earth is already hot due to the burning of fossil fuels. The last El Nino also made 2023 and 2024 the two hottest years on record.

A number of weather agencies predict the upcoming El Nino could be stronger, possibly even rivaling the "super" El Nino about three decades ago.

Berkeley Earth scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote that a strong El Nino could raise the odds of 2027 becoming the hottest year on record.

Burgess said it was too early to determine how strong this El Nino would be. However, whatever its strength, the impact is likely not to be small.

"We will likely see 2027 surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record," he said, quoted by Arab News.

Copernicus said the rise in sea temperatures in March and April showed a transition from a neutral condition to an ongoing El Nino.

However, scientists warn that El Nino is not the only cause of unusually warm seas. Long-term global warming remains the big backdrop. The sea absorbs about 90 percent of the excess heat from human activities.

In its monthly bulletin, Copernicus said April was the third-hottest month globally. The temperature was 1.43 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period of 1850-1900.

Arctic sea ice also remained close to record lows in April. In Europe, weather conditions open up the possibility of a hotter and drier summer, with the risk of drought and forest fires.

"We continue to see extreme events," Burgess said. "Every month, we have more data that the impact of climate change is creating these extreme events."