US Intelligence Agency Studies How Iran Will React If President Trump Announces Victory

JAKARTA - The United States (US) intelligence agency is studying how Iran will respond if President Donald Trump declares a unilateral victory, in a war that has lasted for two months and has killed thousands of people and become a political burden for the White House, said two US officials and sources who know the matter.

The intelligence community is analyzing this issue along with other issues at the request of senior administration officials. The goal is to understand the implications of Trump's possible withdrawal from a conflict that some officials and advisers fear could lead to a major Republican defeat in this year's midterm elections, according to the sources, launching Al Arabiya from Reuters (29/4).

Although no decisions have been made - and President Trump can easily escalate military operations again - a rapid de-escalation could reduce political pressure on the president, although it could leave Iran increasingly bold that could eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programs and threaten US allies in the region.

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.

It is unclear when the intelligence community will complete its work, but previously they had analyzed the possible reactions of Iranian leaders to the US declaration of victory.

Days after the initial bombing campaign in February, intelligence agencies judged that if President Trump declared victory and the US reduced its forces in the region, Iran would likely consider it a victory, one of the sources said.

If President Trump instead says the US has won but maintains a large troop presence, Iran is likely to see it as a negotiating tactic, but not one that will lead to the end of the war, the source said.

"The CIA is not aware of the assessment reported by the intelligence community," Liz Lyons, director of the agency's public affairs office, said in a statement after the publication of this news.

The CIA declined to answer Reuters' specific questions about its current work related to Iran.

The office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US was still engaged in negotiations with Iran and "would not rush into a bad deal."

"The president will only make a deal that prioritizes US national security, and he has made it clear that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon," he said.

Meanwhile, polls show the war is deeply unpopular among Americans. Only 26 percent of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week said the military campaign was worth the cost, and only 25 percent said it made the US safer.

Three people familiar with White House discussions in recent days described President Trump as acutely aware of the political price he and his party must pay.

Twenty days after Trump declared a ceasefire, a series of diplomacy failed to fully open the economically vital Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran closed by attacking ships and laying mines in the narrow waterway.

Restrictions on shipments that carry about 20 percent of the world's crude have driven up energy costs around the globe and gasoline prices in the US. Iran's ability to disrupt trade gives it a powerful lever over the United States and its allies.

The decision to reduce the presence of US military in the region, coupled with the lifting of the blockade in a reciprocal manner, will ultimately lower the price of gasoline.

However, so far, the two sides seem to be far from any agreement.

Last weekend, President Trump canceled a visit by envoys, specifically Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner, to meet with Iranian officials in Pakistan, telling reporters on Saturday it would take "too long" and that if Iran wanted to talk "all they have to do is call."

Various military options remain under formal consideration, including renewed air strikes against Iran's military and political leaders, according to another source familiar with the administration's dynamics.

While one US official and another person familiar with the discussions said, however, the most ambitious option - such as a ground invasion of Iran - seems less likely than a few weeks ago.

A White House official described the domestic pressure on the president to end the war as "very great."

One source said Iran had taken advantage of the ongoing ceasefire to dig up launchers, ammunition, drones and other material that had been buried by US and Israeli bombing in the early weeks of the conflict.

As a result, the tactical cost of continuing a full-scale war is arguably higher now than in the early days of the truce, which began on April 8.