2026 Dry Drought Season, BMKG Warns of Potential Extreme Drought

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) stated that the current global climate condition is still in the neutral phase with the ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) index of around +0.28. However, in the second semester of 2026, this condition has the potential to develop into a weak to moderate El Nino with a chance of reaching 50-80 percent.

The head of BMKG, Teuku Faisal Fathani, explained that the dry season and El Nino are two different phenomena that do not always occur simultaneously. However, if the two intersect, the impact can exacerbate drought in a number of regions in Indonesia.

"It needs to be understood that drought and El Nino are two different phenomena. Drought still occurs every year, but if El Nino is present at the same time, then the drought condition will be much drier," said Faisal in a coordination meeting at the Ministry of Public Works, Jakarta, Monday, April 13.

He emphasized that the potential for drier conditions in 2026 needs to be anticipated early on, especially in the management of water resources so that there is no inequality between flooding when there is excess and drought when there is a shortage.

BMKG also encourages anticipatory steps, ranging from strengthening reservoir and irrigation management based on data, implementing weather modification operations, to campaigns for efficient use of water and energy in various sectors.

According to Faisal, BMKG is ready to support various development sectors by providing up-to-date climate data and information, not only for disaster mitigation, but also for the agricultural, transportation, and infrastructure sectors.

"BMKG not only handles disasters, but also supports development sectors such as agriculture, transportation, and public works infrastructure," he said.

He added that cross-sector synergy is the key in facing the potential drought season which is predicted to come faster and last longer in 2026.