BI Projects Retail Sales to Increase for the Next 6 Months

JAKARTA - Bank Indonesia (BI) survey results show that retail sales performance is expected to increase in the next three to six months.

This projection is reflected in the Sales Expectation Index (IEP) in May and August 2026 which reached 147.2 and 162.4 respectively. These figures are higher than the positions of April and July 2026 which were recorded at 146.7 and 149.1.

"The increase in IEP May 2026 was driven by increased community activities on a number of National Religious Great Days (HKBN), namely Iduladha, the Ascension of Jesus Christ, and Vesak," quoted the Retail Sales Survey Report, Monday, April 13.

Meanwhile, the increase in IEP in August 2026 was influenced by the momentum of the anniversary of the Indonesian Republic and the start of the new school year.

In terms of prices, the inflation pressure in the next three months, namely May 2026, is expected to increase, however, for the next six months or August 2026, the inflation pressure is projected to be relatively stable.

This is reflected in the May 2026 General Price Expectation Index (IEH) which reached 157.4, higher than April 2026 at 153.9, due to the increase in raw material prices. The August 2026 IEH is estimated at 157.2, relatively stable compared to July 2026 at 157.1.

In addition, retail sales performance in March 2026 is expected to continue to grow, namely the Real Sales Index (IPR) in that period is projected to increase by 2.4 percent year on year (yoy), although lower than the growth of February 2026 which reached 5.7 percent.

The Executive Director of the BI Communication Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, explained that the growth was mainly supported by an increase in sales in the spare parts and accessories group of 11.3 percent (yoy), food, beverages, and tobacco of 4 percent, and cultural and recreational goods of 1.7 percent.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in March 2026 are estimated to grow 9.3 percent (month to month/mtm), up from 4.1 percent in February 2026.

This increase is driven by the majority of commodity groups, especially information and communication equipment, motor vehicle fuel, and clothing subgroups, as household consumption increases during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 1447 H.

In terms of region, on an annual basis, a number of cities recorded retail sales growth, including Surabaya (13.6 percent), Semarang including Purwokerto (8.7 percent), Banjarmasin (8.2 percent), and Denpasar (5.1 percent).

Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, the increase in sales occurred mainly in several cities such as Manado (14.4 percent), Jakarta (5.3 percent), Bandung (12.5 percent), and Surabaya (8.4 percent).