BI Forecasts Retail Sales Growth Slows to 2.4 Percent in March 2026

Bank Indonesia (BI) reported that retail sales performance is expected to continue to grow in March 2026.

This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) which is estimated to reach 254.2 or grow by 2.4 percent year on year (yoy).

However, the growth of IPR was lower than the previous month which reached 6.5 percent (yoy).

The Executive Director of the BI Communication Department, Ramdan Denny Prakoso, revealed that the retail sales performance was mainly supported by the growth in sales of the Spare Parts and Accessories Group with an index of 162, growing 11.3 percent (yoy), the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Group with an index of 364.7 of 4 percent, and the Cultural and Recreational Goods Group with an index of 60.8 growing by 1.7 percent.

"On a monthly basis, retail sales in March 2026 are estimated to grow by 9.3 percent month to month (mtm), higher than the growth in February 2026 of 4.1 percent (mtm)," he said in a statement, Monday, April 13.

The increase was driven by the performance of the majority of groups, especially the Information and Communication Equipment Group, the Motor Vehicle Fuel Group, and the Subgroup of Sandang with growth of 8.1 percent, 6.4 percent, 18.6 percent in line with the increase in household demand during the period of the National Religious Great Day (HBKN) Ramadan and Idulfitri 1447 H.

In February 2026, IPR grew annually by 6.5 percent (yoy), higher than IPR January 2026 of 5.7 percent (yoy).

"This growth was supported by an increase in sales in most groups, especially the Parts and Accessories Group, the Food, Beverage and Tobacco Group and the Sandang Subgroup," he said.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in February 2026 grew by 4.1 percent (mtm), increasing compared to the previous month which was in a contraction phase of 2.7 percent (mtm).

This increase was supported by the sales performance of the Parts and Accessories Group, the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Group, and the Sandang Subgroup in line with the increase in public demand during the Ramadan period.

In terms of prices, the pressure on inflation in the coming three months, namely May 2026, is expected to increase, while in the coming six months, namely August 2026, it is expected to be relatively stable.

This is reflected in the May 2026 General Price Expectation Index (IEH) of 157.4, higher than the April 2026 IEH of 153.9 due to the increase in raw material prices.

Meanwhile, the August 2026 IEH is estimated at 157.2, relatively stable compared to the IEH in July 2026 at 157.1.