War in the Middle East is starting to shake Africa's food security

JAKARTA - African countries are considered very vulnerable to supply chain disruptions due to the war in the Middle East, especially because many of them depend on imported fertilizers from the Gulf region sent through the Strait of Hormuz. According to The Guardian, quoted Tuesday, March 17, this situation risks putting pressure on food production and exacerbating the cost of living.

The Guardian quoted a UNCTAD report saying that about 54 percent of Sudan's fertilizer entered through the route. For Somalia, the figure is 30 percent, while Kenya is around 26 percent. Globally, about a third of fertilizer trade by sea also passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

The problem is not just with fertilizer. The Guardian wrote, fertilizer prices have risen since the war broke out last month. It is estimated that rising oil and gas prices will add pressure, especially for African countries that are already burdened with high debt, weak infrastructure, and dependence on foreign markets.

Oxford Economics Africa analyst Jervin Naidoo said any major disruption like this would have far-reaching effects. Meanwhile, the economics professor at the University of Nairobi, XN Iraki, assessed that the rise in oil prices would be felt very sharply in Africa because many residents work in the informal sector with uncertain income.

The Guardian also reported that a number of countries were preparing. Kenya regulates oil imports until the end of April. Tanzania strengthens strategic fuel reserves. Ethiopia is preparing fuel subsidies, while Zambia warns retailers not to hoard fuel.

On the other hand, rising oil prices could provide additional revenue for exporting countries such as Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola. However, for many other African countries, the impact that is felt more quickly is actually on increasingly expensive fertilizers, rising food, and increasing cost pressures. The Guardian also noted that this conflict has begun to disrupt African exports to the Middle East, including meat, tea, and other food products from Kenya.