JCI Predicted to Remain Under Pressure Ahead of Long Lebaran Holidays

JAKARTA - The Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) is predicted to fluctuate ahead of the long Idulfitri holiday on Tuesday, March 17. Phintraco Sekuritas in its research predicts that the JCI today will move in the range of resistance 7,150, pivot 7,000, and support 6,900.

Phintraco Sekuritas explained that the JCI yesterday closed down 1.61 percent to 7,022.29. Concerns about the impact of rising crude oil prices on inflation, the potential for widening the state budget deficit, the continued depreciation of the rupiah, and the potential for slowing the domestic economy, are negative factors that affect the movement of the JCI.

"In addition, ahead of the long holiday, investors tend to be cautious," wrote Phintraco Sekuritas.

Phintraco Sekuritas said the rupiah closed at a weaker level of Rp16,997 per US dollar in the spot market yesterday. Most indices on Asian exchanges moved in negative territory on Monday.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said his trip to China later this month could be postponed. This is because the US is trying to pressure China to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

President Prabowo Subianto reiterated his commitment to fiscal discipline, stating that the main principle in his administration is to ensure that the Indonesian nation lives within its means.

The President emphasized that the option of easing the state budget deficit is the last option. The President stated that he would only consider expanding the state budget deficit limit to a maximum of 3 percent of GDP if Indonesia faced an extraordinary emergency situation.

"Investors will look forward to RDG Bank Indonesia which is expected to maintain the BI Rate at the level of 4.75 percent," explained Phintraco Sekuritas.

According to Phintraco Securities, bank credit growth is estimated to increase by 10.1% in February 2026 from 9.96% in January 2026. Ahead of the long holiday, it is estimated that investors tend to hold back amid high uncertainty.

"Today's JCI is expected to move in the range of 6,900-7,150," said Phintraco Securities.

Phintraco Sekuritas recommends five stocks today, namely CPIN, SCMA, MYOR, MEDC and ESSA.