State Budget Deficit Potentially Breaks 3.6 Percent, Government Considers MBG Program Efficiency

JAKARTA - Minister of Finance Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa opened the possibility of making savings in the budget of the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) program which this year reached Rp. 335 trillion.

He added that the step was considered if the spike in world crude oil prices caused the 2026 State Budget (APBN) deficit to exceed the safe limit of 3 percent.

Purbaya explained that the government had carried out a risk simulation (stress test) on the potential increase in world oil prices to an average of 92 US dollars per barrel per year.

According to him, this increase is expected to occur due to the increasing tension of the conflict between Iran and Israel and the United States.

He explained that based on the results of the simulation, the state budget deficit has the potential to widen to 3.6 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) if the oil price is in that range throughout the year.

"We have exercised that if the price of oil is 92 US dollars for an average of one year, then the deficit will be 3.6 percent more," he told the media, quoted on Sunday, March 8.

Purbaya said that to prevent the deficit from widening, the government has prepared a number of adjustment measures in state spending, one of the options considered is to carry out budget efficiency in several programs, including the MBG program.

"If that happens, we will take steps to prevent it from happening. Where can we save? For example, savings in MBG," he said.

However, he emphasized that this efficiency would not reduce the main budget of the MBG program, especially those directly related to the provision of food for beneficiaries such as schoolchildren, pregnant women, and the elderly.

According to him, savings are more focused on supporting expenditures that are not directly related to food provision.

"What is clear is that the MBG program is good, but we want to prevent if there is spending that does not directly support the food. For example, buy a motorcycle for all SPPG or buy a computer," he explained.

For information, the budget for the MBG program this year reached Rp. 335 trillion with a target of 82.9 million people or an increase compared to 2025 which was Rp. 71 trillion with a target of 17.9 million recipients.

In addition to MBG, he said the government is also considering postponing some infrastructure spending that is multi-years or projects whose implementation can be shifted to the following year.

Purbaya gave an example of a number of projects in the Ministry of Public Works that were likely to be rescheduled, such as the construction of bridges and educational facilities.

"For example, at the PU Ministry, there may be expenses that can be shifted to next year. There are various programs they have, bridges, schools," he said.