BMKG Drought Prediction 2026 Starting April, Peak August

JAKARTA - The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) predicts that the 2026 dry season in Indonesia will come earlier than the normal period. The early dry season is estimated to start from April to June 2026, with the peak of the dry season occurring in August 2026.

The head of BMKG, Teuku Faisal Fathani, said that the weak La Nina phenomenon which has been going on since October 2025 has ended in February 2026. The end of La Nina is one of the factors that affect the shift in the pattern of the season this year.

According to Teuku, in April 2026, as many as 114 seasonal zones or about 16.3% of Indonesia's territory are predicted to begin entering the dry season.

"So, those who enter the dry season in May are 184 seasonal zones or 26.3% and in June 2026 as many as 163 seasonal zones or 23.3% of all Indonesian regions. Later it will start in Nusa Tenggara and gradually spread to other regions of Indonesia," said Teuku in his statement. Wednesday, March 4.

BMKG noted that most of Indonesia will experience the beginning of the dry season faster than usual. A total of 325 seasonal zones or 46.5% are predicted to experience a drought that comes earlier than normal. Meanwhile, 173 seasonal zones or 23.7% are expected to enter the dry season according to normal time.

In terms of rainfall, BMKG estimates that the dry season this year tends to be drier. A total of 451 seasonal zones or 64.5% of Indonesia's territory are predicted to experience rainfall accumulation below normal during the dry season.

This condition has the potential to increase the risk of drought in a number of areas, especially areas that have entered the dry season first, such as Nusa Tenggara. Local governments and communities are urged to start taking mitigation steps, including water resource management and forest and land fire anticipation (karhutla).