Inflation at the beginning of Ramadan 2026 is under control, the National Food Reserve is a support

JAKARTA - The National Food Agency (Bapanas) believes that the inflation value at the beginning of Ramadan 2026 is ensured to be under control along with the support of strong national food reserves and balances.

Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), February 2026 inflation on a month-to-month basis was recorded at 0.68 percent.

Historically in the last five years, inflationary pressure has often emerged during the Ramadan period. However, this year's achievement is lower than Ramadan 2025 which reached 1.65 percent.

Spatially, 33 provinces experienced inflation and five provinces experienced deflation, in line with the increase in public consumption ahead of the National Religious Holiday (HBKN). The food, beverage, and tobacco group is still the main contributor to inflation.

Deputy for Food Availability and Stabilization of the National Food Agency (Bapanas) I Gusti Ketut Astawa emphasized that the dynamics of prices during the Ramadan period is a seasonal pattern due to increased demand.

"Every Ramadan there must be pressure on demand. That's the law of economics. But what must be guarded is that the surge should not be excessive and not return to stability. This year we see the numbers are still moderate and under control," Ketut said in an official statement, Tuesday, March 3.

Ketut explained, as a food producing country, price movements within reasonable limits are part of a healthy economic mechanism. Stability, he said, does not mean that prices must be silent, but rather move within a controlled corridor.

"We are a producer country, not just a consumer. If the price continues to be suppressed and never moves, it is risky for producers. Farmers and livestock farmers can be hit because production costs are not covered. In the long run, it can actually disrupt supply. Therefore, food inflation within reasonable limits is important, but must be controlled," he said.

Ketut added that the character of food commodities as volatile food makes prices move according to the demand and supply cycle.

However, the government ensures that every movement remains within the policy limit and can return to stability after the momentum of demand subsides.

"What should not be is when the increase is too high and does not go down again. That's where the state must be present. The state maintains a balance between the interests of producers and consumers," he said.

In terms of availability, the national food balance sheet for the first quarter of 2026 is projected to be in surplus for strategic main commodities. Rice recorded a surplus of 14.83 million tons with a total availability of 22.59 million tons and a need of 7.76 million tons. Corn surplus 4.99 million tons. In animal protein commodities, chicken meat surplus 586,000 tons and chicken eggs surplus 267,000 tons.

In addition, Ketut continued, the government controls rice reserves of around 3.5 million tons managed by Perum Bulog, providing a strong cushion to maintain price stability in the market.

"If the stock is strong, we have room for intervention. There is no need to panic. Our instruments are complete, ranging from reserves, price stabilization, to distribution strengthening. With this foundation, the government can respond quickly when there is pressure in certain areas," said Ketut.

As a concrete step ahead of HBKN, Bapanas channeled the Government Food Reserve (CPP) through the Food Supply and Price Stabilization (SPHP) program of 828,000 tons of rice. The Cheap Food Movement (GPM) has been held in 514 districts/cities.

The government also distributed food assistance in the form of 10 kilograms of rice and 2 liters of cooking oil per month to 33.2 million Beneficiary Families (KPM).

Previously, the Head of Bapanas who is also the Minister of Agriculture, Andi Amran Sulaiman, emphasized that supervision was carried out in all regions together with the National Police of the Republic of Indonesia and related ministries/institutions.

"We ensure that price stability and supply continue to be maintained. Market monitoring will continue, and no business actors should play with food prices," said Amran, Sunday, March 1.

With a combination of a balance of trade surplus, strong government reserves, and ongoing stabilization instruments, Bapanas ensures that food price stability during Ramadan until Eid al-Fitr 2026 is maintained so that the public can carry out their worship calmly.