Ramadan Effect is Back to Haunt the Crypto Market, Here's What Industry Players Say
JAKARTA - In the month of Ramadan 2026, the crypto market again showed a pattern of volatility that is often associated with the seasonal phenomenon or the Ramadan Effect.
Historical data shows that in six of the last seven Ramadan (2019-2025), Bitcoin tends to experience sharp movements at the beginning of the period, followed by a phase of ups and downs (choppy), then weakening or losing momentum at the end of the month.
Instead of opening with a strong rally, at the beginning of Ramadan yesterday, Bitcoin actually experienced unstable movement, had a sharp correction (flush), and then tried to rebound. Even so, there is still potential for an increase, although it tends to be fragile and full of resistance.
Tokocrypto's internal research noted a change in the behavior of retail investors during Ramadan. Transaction activity usually slows down during the day and increases again at night after breaking the fast until dawn.
Tokocrypto CEO, Calvin Kizana, assessed that this phenomenon is a natural dynamic in the global market. According to him, Ramadan is not the main factor that determines the direction of the crypto market.
"Prices are still influenced by global liquidity, macro sentiments, and international economic conditions. However, historically there is a pattern of recurring volatility. Therefore, investors need to be disciplined and not only rely on seasonal narratives," said Calvin.
Overall, Calvin added, the medium and long-term direction of the crypto market is still more influenced by external factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy, global liquidity flows, and international market sentiment.
Calvin urged traders and investors to continue to prioritize comprehensive technical and fundamental analysis during Ramadan.
"Changes in daily activity patterns, the potential for asset liquidation for zakat or Eid al-Fitr needs, and global dynamics need to be considered in investment decision-making," he said.