Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin's name enters the 2029 presidential race, observers: it is difficult to pair with Prabowo

JAKARTA - The name Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin appears in the presidential candidate exchange (capres) 2029 is considered to bring a new dynamic in the national political map. However, Sjafrie's chances to be paired with Prabowo Subianto are considered to be relatively small. Political observer Ray Rangkuti assessed that the small chance was because the main consideration was that Sjafrie and Prabowo had a background as retired TNI officers. "The entry of Pak Sjafrie into the 2029 presidential candidate exchange is actually quite difficult to be paired with Pak Prabowo. It seems unlikely that two TNI people will be paired together," said Ray when contacted by a reporter, Wednesday, February 18. According to him, with both having the same military background, there is the potential for resistance, both within the political elite and the public. He said there was a consideration if Sjafrie still entered the 2029 presidential candidate exchange contest, namely if paired with Prabowo, the composition was considered less ideal because of the similarities. In addition, if Sjafrie is not with Prabowo, then the situation can be said to be a 'race' in the relatively same voters. "If he is not with Pak Prabowo, it seems like a race in the exchange that is actually the same," he said. He also mentioned the potential for subjective dynamics among the elite with the entry of a new name could be seen as a strategic opportunity, but could also be considered a political threat. "Pak Prabowo could see this as an opportunity, or on the contrary see this as a kind of threat," he added.

On the other hand, Ray admitted that the increasing number of names on the presidential candidate exchange benefited the public. According to him, the public will have more alternatives in determining political choices. Several names he mentioned stand out in the 2029 presidential candidate exchange such as Anies Baswedan, Ganjar Pranowo, Ridwan Kamil, Sandiaga Uno, Puan Maharani and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono.

Previously, the latest survey results of the Indonesian Public Institute (IPI) showed a number of new faces in the presidential candidate exchange 2029, including Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, a number of governors, to Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa. IPI researcher Abdan Sakura revealed that the emergence of new faces is inseparable from a number of factors affecting their electability, such as leadership, reputation, track record, media publication, integrity, vision-mission and work programs. He gave an example, four indicators that strengthen Sjafrie's electability in the form of leadership and his reputation at 44 percent, track record of leadership 17 percent, recommendations from the environment and media 12 percent, and integrity 10 percent. "Figures such as Pramono Anung, Dedi Mulyadi, and Syafrie appear as potential figures who receive a fairly strong assessment of eligibility, even if they have not yet been fully converted into electoral support," said Abdan. According to him, the gap opens up room for new political dynamics, especially if there is a crisis, a change in the coalition map, or the absence of "main players". Meanwhile, he mentioned the low electability of a number of popular figures confirms that popularity alone is no longer enough in the midst of voters who are increasingly rational and contextual.