Rupiah Potentially Under Pressure, Global and Domestic Sentiments Will Determine

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Thursday, February 12, 2026 is expected to weaken against the US dollar.

To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Wednesday, February 11, 2026, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed up 0.11 percent to Rp16,799 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up slightly 0.15 percent to the price level of Rp16,786 per US dollar.

Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that the data on retail sales in the United States in December was lower than expected.

According to him, this condition indicates that consumer spending in the world's largest economy has begun to slow down amid high inflation and pressure on the labor market.

"Continued weakness in spending could present a weaker outlook for the economy," he said in a statement, quoted on Thursday, February 12.

He added that a weaker economic outlook could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again this year to support growth.

"The yield on US government bonds fell because of this assumption, while the dollar struggled to recover from the large losses recorded on Monday," he said.

Meanwhile, from within the country, ahead of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr 2026, the government launched the I-2026 Economic Stimulus Package.

Ibrahim said this program includes transportation discount policies, the implementation of work from anywhere (WFA), and the distribution of food assistance.

According to him, the policy aims to ensure the smoothness, comfort, and ease the burden of the community in welcoming Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr.

"In addition to economic stimulus, the government also prioritizes aspects of safety and comfort for homecoming travel. Then, cross-ministry/agency coordination continues to be carried out to ensure the feasibility of road infrastructure, especially in the midst of high rainfall conditions," he explained.

Ibrahim said that not only did the government provide transportation discounts, but also tried to maintain people's purchasing power through food assistance in the form of 10 kilograms of rice and 2 liters of cooking oil per month.

He added that the assistance was distributed for two months to 35.04 million beneficiary families (KPM) from the desil 1-4 groups.

"With this policy formulated by the government, it can move the people's economy while encouraging national economic growth, so that it can boost the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter better than the fourth quarter of 2025," he explained.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will move fluctuatio but will close weaker on Thursday, February 12, 2026 in the price range of Rp16,780 - Rp16,810 per US dollar.