Government prepares Indonesia Economic Outlook, Moody's negative outlook response
JAKARTA - The government will hold an Indonesia Economic Outlook forum on Friday as a response to the negative outlook that Moody's has pinned on Indonesia's economy.
However, Indonesia still maintains an investment grade rating from all international rating agencies.
Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto said Moody's notes needed to be followed up with a thorough explanation, especially regarding state revenues and the plan to form Danantara.
"There is indeed a negative outlook from Moody's. This must be considered, especially regarding state revenues and also related to Danantara's plans," said Airlangga after meeting with President Prabowo Subianto at the Presidential Palace Complex, Wednesday, February 11.
During the meeting, the government delivered an update on macroeconomic indicators. Economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 was recorded at 5.39 percent with an annual growth of 5.11 percent.
Manufacturing activity is still in the expansion zone, reflected by the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of 52.6.
Consumption indicators also show strengthening. The Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) in January 2026 rose to level 127, while the Mandiri Spending Index reached 372.5.
Real retail sales grew 7.9 percent year-on-year.
In the external sector, Indonesia again recorded a trade balance surplus of US$2.51 billion, continuing the trend of surplus for 68 consecutive months.
The realization of PMA and PMDN investment reached IDR 1,931.2 trillion, foreign exchange reserves of US$ 154.6 billion, and banking credit grew 9.69 percent.
Regarding the tariff policy of the United States era of President Donald Trump, Airlangga said the adjustment process was still ongoing.
"We have come down from 32 percent to 19 percent, and there are still several other things waiting for full completion," he said.
The government also targets the signing of the Agreement on Reciprocal Tariff (ART) Indonesia-US around February 19.