IHSG Tertekan adalah Keniscayaan Pasar Terkini

JAKARTA - The movement of the Indonesian financial market has recently shown an increasingly challenging trend when the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) fell significantly in the last few sessions, while the exchange rate of the US dollar against the rupiah tended to strengthen.

This phenomenon reflects a combination of intense global pressures, the shift in global investor preferences towards US dollar-denominated assets, as well as domestic fundamental dynamics that are still in the adjustment phase.

Recently, the JCI was sharply depressed due to a number of negative sentiments both domestically and globally. Market analysts noted that the composite index had been at its lowest level in a certain period of time, reflecting the rebalancing of investor portfolios towards lower risk instruments.

Meanwhile, the rupiah is under depreciation pressure against the US dollar, recording a level close to the weakest position in recent months, with figures reflecting a weakening trend since the beginning of January 2026.

Media also reported that this phenomenon is in line with global market dynamics as capital outflows from developing and emerging markets cause selling pressure on high-risk instruments including domestic stocks and bonds, while safe-haven flows strengthen the US dollar.

This condition is strengthened by data showing foreign net sell in the Indonesian bond market recently, which also pressured the domestic market and the rupiah exchange rate.

One of the fundamental causes of pressure on the JCI and the rupiah is uncertainty about global monetary policy, especially in the United States, which creates a difference in attractiveness between US dollar-denominated assets and assets in emerging market countries.

When the prospect of US interest rates remains relatively high or the tightening expectations increase, the relative return on US bonds becomes more attractive compared to the yield in emerging markets, such as Indonesia. As a result, global capital moves out of the Indonesian stock market and rupiah-denominated instruments, which puts pressure on the JCI and weakens the rupiah.

Although Bank Indonesia has tried to maintain the policy interest rate at 7-day reverse repurchase rates at 4.75 percent recently to support currency stability and economic growth, the move also indicates that the room for further tightening is increasingly limited amid the focus on maintaining growth momentum.

Pressure also comes from the perception of the Indonesian market's investability. The Financial Times reported that global institutions had given warnings regarding Indonesia's stock investment ability that could disrupt the interest of foreign investors if some structural issues were not addressed.

The incident triggered and increased the volatility of the JCI, reflected in the sharp decline in certain trades and concerns that it would continue if there was no clear policy response.

In addition, the outflow of data from foreign investors in the bond market is quite large, indicating that although domestic yields are competitive, global risks are driving reallocation to assets that are considered more liquid and safe.

The JCI, which has been corrected in recent days, is a reflection of market sentiment turmoil. Short-term investors respond quickly to negative news, including global concerns and currency movements, triggering selling.

The correlation between the stock market and the exchange rate, although not always significant, underscores how external risks such as a rise in US debt yields or warnings from global index institutions can trigger sharp corrections in domestic indices.

The strengthening of the US dollar against the rupiah reflects the flight to quality phase where global capital seeks assets with a lower risk profile, especially when expectations of US interest rate hikes or geopolitical uncertainties continue to increase. The rupiah weakens as a logical consequence of this condition, especially when capital outflows increase demand for US dollars and suppress the supply of rupiah in the local foreign exchange market.

The latest data shows that the rupiah movement has remained under significant pressure during the first few days of January 2026.

Bank Indonesia needs to maintain the credibility of monetary policy that is responsive to global dynamics without sacrificing price stability and growth.

The decision to hold the interest rate in the latest meeting reflects the balance between maintaining the attractiveness of local assets and dampening depreciation pressures. However, a clear communication strategy on the policy path and domestic economic conditions is essential to reduce market volatility.

To increase investment, there needs to be a coordinated step between capital market authorities and regulators to improve transparency, corporate governance, and of course trading infrastructure.

This will help strengthen the confidence of foreign and domestic capital in the Indonesian market and encourage more stable capital inflows.

Capital market participants in the forex trading market are encouraged to consider portfolio diversification, such as asset and currency class allocation, as well as disciplined risk management.

A deep understanding of macroeconomic fundamentals and global indicators will help make rational decisions in volatile conditions.

The correction of the JCI and the strengthening of the dollar against the rupiah which has been seen recently are manifestations of the dynamics of interconnected global markets and short-term risk signals.

Market participants should view this pressure as part of a market cycle that requires an analytical, adaptive, and informed response, both in investment strategies and risk hedging.

Meanwhile, monetary policy coordination and improvement of market structural parameters remain a prerequisite for increasing the resilience of the Indonesian capital market in the face of the ever-changing wave of global turmoil.

*) Prof Dr Ir Perdana Wahyu Santosa, MM, CRP, CSA, Professor of Economics, Dean of FEB Universitas YARSI, and Director of Research GREAT Institute