Industrial Confidence Index Rises Dramatically to 54.12 in January 2026, Here's the Factor

JAKARTA - The Ministry of Industry (Kemenperin) recorded that the industrial confidence index (IKI) in January 2026 reached 54.12.

This figure rose sharply by 2.22 points from IKI in December 2025 which was recorded at 51.90.

"In January 2026, IKI reached a value of 54.12. Compared to December 2025, IKI increased by 2.22 points. Compared to IKI January last year or 2025, IKI increased by 1.02 points," said the spokesperson for the Ministry of Industry, Febri Hendri Antoni Arif in the IKI January 2026 Release in Jakarta, Thursday, January 29.

Based on the analysis of the Ministry of Industry, the increase in the IKI value in January 2026 was due to the industry intensifying production to meet the needs when entering Ramadan and before Eid al-Fitr 2026.

"We see or assess that the reason for this January 2026 IKI to rise high compared to December 2025 IKI is because the industry is intensifying production to respond to or meet the needs of Eid al-Fitr and Ramadan and other religious holidays," he said.

He added that in January, there were 20 subsectors that experienced expansion. The contribution of these 20 subsectors to gross domestic product (GDP) was 94.7 percent.

In other words, the IKI subsectors with an expansive status are the ones that contribute the most to GDP.

The two subsectors with the highest IKI value are the motor vehicle, trailer and semi-trailer industry (KBLI 29) and the machine and equipment industry YTDL (KBLI 28).

Meanwhile, said Febri, there are three subsectors that have contracted, including the leather industry, leather goods and footwear (KBLI 15), the wood industry, wood and cork goods (excluding furniture) and woven goods from bamboo, rattan and the like (KBLI 16) as well as the computer industry, electronic and optical goods (KBLI 26).

Febri revealed that based on the variables that form IKI, there are three things, namely the new order variable, the production variable and the product inventory variable.

"The value of new order IKI increased by 2.51 points or reached 55.27. Furthermore, the value of variable production IKI also increased by 6.45 points and was at an expansion point of 54.86. On the other hand, product inventories slowed by 4.85 points or reached 50.14," he explained.

For IKI exports and domestic still show an expansionary trend in November 2025.

IKI exports in January 2026 were recorded at 54.62 or up 2.26 points from December 2025 which reached 52.36.

Meanwhile, domestic IKI is also still in the expansion phase at the level of 53.25.

This figure increased by 1.92 points compared to December 2025 which was at the level of 51.33.

"We have observed several export-oriented industrial subsectors, although export IKI in January 2026 is relatively higher than before, we have observed that there are several export-oriented industrial subsectors that have actually contracted in January," said Febri.

The export-oriented industrial sub-sectors that are currently contracting are the footwear industry and the basic metal industry.

"Meanwhile, the domestic market-oriented footwear industry subsector is actually expanding, as well as the domestic-oriented basic metal industry. The same is true for the repair industry, installation of machines, tools, it is a contraction oriented export, while the domestic-oriented is expanding," he explained.

"The export-oriented industrial subsector is still in preparation to see how global uncertainties affect their demand, global uncertainties include geopolitical turmoil and tariff wars between countries," he continued.

In addition, the condition of business activities in general in January 2026 tends to increase compared to the previous month, namely 78.5 percent of respondents said that their business activities were improving and stable.

Optimistic business actors about their business conditions in the next 6 months still show a trend of increasing optimism in the last six months, namely 72.5 percent.

The figure rose 0.7 percent compared to the previous month's percentage.