In recent weeks, United States President Donald Trump has consistently shocked the world. His invasion of Venezuela and the detention of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, has drawn both controversy and controversy. According to Dr. Teguh Santosa, Director of Geopolitics at the GREAT Institute, the 45th and 47th President of the United States had compelling reasons for his actions.

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One of Donald Trump's reasons for invading Venezuela was its alleged involvement in drug cartels. "This wasn't a sudden action. In 2020, two cousins ​​of Maduro's wife were arrested in the US; they admitted to being involved in a drug network. According to the US legal system, Maduro and Cilia are suspected of involvement. This happened during Donald Trump's first term as president. He believed Maduro was behind the drug cartels, which is why he took this action (arresting Maduro)," he said.

Besides that, there are also suspected economic motives, as Venezuela has one of the world's largest oil reserves. However, in Teguh's view, this reason is rather weak. He prefers security concerns. "Venezuela provides direct assistance to US rivals, namely Russia and China, in terms of energy supplies," said Teguh Santosa.

Another matter that has attracted no less attention is Donald Trump's initiative to establish a Peace Council (BoP). This is an international body established to oversee the stabilization and rehabilitation of the post-conflict Gaza. This was the explanation given by Minister of Foreign Affairs (Menlu) Sugiono in his statement in Bad Ragaz, Switzerland, on Friday, January 23, 2026, after President Prabowo Subianto attended the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.

At the forum, Prabowo signed the BoP Charter. This document is a continuation of a long process of dialogue and meetings between several countries, particularly Islamic countries and countries with Muslim majorities, regarding the situation in Palestine.

Teguh is optimistic that the BoP will achieve a faster resolution of the conflict between Palestine and Israel. "I think Gaza and Palestine will be better off with this council," he told Edy Suherli, Bambang Eros, and Irfan Meidianto during a special interview at the VOI office in Tanah Abang, Central Jakarta, on January 23, 2026.

How do you view Donald Trump's recent actions?

In foreign policy theory, there are three influencing factors. First, global or external dynamics. Second, internal or domestic dynamics. And third, what's known as the leader's idiosyncrasies—the attitudes, personality, and long experience of each leader in each country.

We're currently discussing the idiosyncrasies of Donald Trump, not the US in general, because the two are different. The US is a country with established laws and regulations, where who can use public space changes after the presidential election. Trump was elected the 45th and 47th presidents. The situation is certainly different from when Obama (44th) and Joe Biden (46th) were in power.

Now, let's look directly at Trump's actions in Venezuela. How do you view them?

Before Venezuela became a focus of attention, Trump's trade tariff policy was a major focus, but the issue has since subsided. The question now is why Trump invaded Venezuela and arrested Nicolas Maduro and Cilia Flores in a major operation.

The reason is Maduro's role, considered significant by Trump and US law, in the alleged involvement of drug cartels. It should be noted that linking Maduro to drugs was not Donald Trump's initial decision.

Since when has the US wanted to arrest Maduro? Was it just recently, or has it been around for a long time?

This wasn't a sudden action. In 2020, two cousins ​​of Maduro's wife were arrested in the US and admitted to being involved in a drug network. Under US legal system, Maduro and Cilia are suspected of involvement. This incident occurred during Donald Trump's first term in office. He believes Maduro is behind the drug cartels, which is why he took this action (arresting Maduro).

Trump saw the US as slightly weakened on the global stage under the Obama and Joe Biden administrations. Furthermore, he saw Venezuela providing direct assistance to US rivals, namely Russia and China, in terms of energy supplies.

Was this the main reason Donald Trump invaded Venezuela?

The main reason was security. The US feels approached by enemies from its "backyard," in this case through Venezuela. The issue of drugs is debatable, as the largest narcotics supply isn't actually from the Atlantic or Venezuela. But that argument can be used.

Currently, some report that China's military strength is already on par with the US military, and some even say it has surpassed it. The most frequently discussed example is the comparison of the F-35 with the Chengdu J-20. Some predict that by 2027, China will be far stronger, with a 12:1 ratio against the US.

Venezuela is certainly not an equal match for the US. However, kidnapping a president and his wife alive without any casualties on the part of the kidnappers is an extraordinary operation.

Some suspect the US's motive for invading Venezuela was economic, seeking control of oil resources. What's your response?

When Hugo Chávez took office after winning the election in Venezuela, he nationalized US and European oil and gas companies under the Hydrocarbon Law. This disappointed AxxonMobil and Chevron. However, Chevron's relationship with the Venezuelan government remained good. Unlike AxxonMobil, the issue was ultimately brought to the International Court of Justice, and Venezuela was found guilty of unilaterally terminating the contract. However, the penalty was light, requiring a 10% payment of the contract value. For Chávez, paying the penalty was irrelevant; the important thing was that the foreign companies leave. After all, US companies had long been building oil and gas infrastructure in Venezuela. When Chávez severed ties with US oil companies, the oil and gas infrastructure could not be properly maintained, ultimately impacting lifting (oil production). What used to be 3-4 million barrels per day is now below 1 million barrels per day. Ultimately, the oil has no economic value. Meanwhile, the ruling government has programs to alleviate poverty and improve the welfare of the people. Economic diversification has not been implemented.

So Venezuela is heavily dependent on oil?

Yes, that's the reality, not to mention the challenges of processing the oil reserves there are greater. First, because the crude oil is more solid, so it requires technology to process it there. And second, it requires companies willing to face the threat of US sanctions if they enter Venezuela. And the countries that can do that are Russia, China, and Iran.

Reportedly, Indonesia also entered through Pertamina?

Pertamina didn't enter directly, but through another company (Maurel & Prom). But production hasn't started yet; the process is still being mapped. When I met with the Venezuelan Ambassador recently, I asked where the Maurel & Prom oil wells were. He said they were in the Maracaebo area. In Venezuela, oil flows from the Orinoco Delta (Orinoco Belt) to Lake Maracaebo, from the east to the west.

Won't Trump's invasion of Venezuela set a precedent and be replicated in other parts of the world?

This isn't the first time the US has done this; it's happened before Trump. This is the reality of world politics today: if you're strong, you can do anything, and if you're weak, you'll die. Another thing Trump did was the Monroe Doctrine. This is a foreign policy proclaimed by US President James Monroe on December 2, 1823. It was a form of US support for countries in Latin America, Central America, and the Caribbean to gain independence from European colonial rule: Spain, Portugal, etc. In the 17th and 18th centuries, European nations ruled, but now the situation is reversed, with European nations dependent on US protection. The concept of the Western Hemisphere extends to Western Europe, beyond which countries are not considered Western Hemisphere countries. When Trump raised concerns about Greenland, he revised his stance due to recent discussions. The security picture included Greenland.

Before Trump's annexation of Greenland, Canada also wanted to annex it, but the opposition was very strong. How do you interpret this?

Trump criticized NATO members, who received protection but were playing tricks on others. The new Canadian government is close to China. These countries face their own dilemmas. Now, Western countries are complaining about Donald Trump's actions. Well, this is what developing countries have been experiencing all this time. I hope that the Donald Trump phenomenon will bring a new awareness. Once they survive Donald Trump, they will be more humble and consider developing countries not as countries on the same level as them.

Regarding Trump's Peace Council, what do you think?

It's an extension of the UN, but Trump initiated it. He created a communal institution with fewer members. There's a fee for countries wanting to join, which is used to finance their activities. In politics, bluffing is common, such as when he announced he would attack Iran. Fortunately, the Iranian government is strong, and the support provided by the CIA and Mossad couldn't overthrow the Iranian government. So, I see that although many people are distraught by Trump's actions on the global political stage, his actions also have benefits for certain groups.

Is Indonesia's involvement in the Peace Council in line with Indonesia's independent and active foreign policy?

In my opinion, it is. During his speech at the UN General Assembly last September, President Prabowo stated his readiness to send 20,000 troops to maintain world peace. Indonesia has long supported a two-state solution to resolve the conflict between Palestine and Israel. Therefore, Indonesia recognizes the right to exist between Palestine and Israel as states. However, diplomatic relations with Israel do not exist because that country oppresses the Palestinian people. On the other hand, there are also countries that strongly oppose the presence of the state of Israel, namely Iran.

What will the future of Gaza and Palestine look like after the formation of the Peace Council initiated by Trump?

This council was initiated by Trump, but it was born from a UN resolution. I think Gaza and Palestine will be better off with this council. However, it is important to note that within Palestine itself, there are factions that have not yet united: Fatah, Hamas, and other factions. Hopefully, peace in Gaza will be achieved more quickly after the formation of this Peace Council.

What is your message and advice to Indonesian diplomats regarding the follow-up to the agreement signed by President Prabowo in Davos?

The issue of Palestine is clear; it has always been in our playbook. With the establishment of this Peace Council, we have new room to maneuver, allowing us to more optimally defend the Palestinian people oppressed by Israel.

In his speech in Davos, I commended President Prabowo for not being carried away by the sentiments expressed by previous leaders. Instead, he addressed the basic issues that we should be working on. I think that's smart: that there is no development without stability. He also generously stated that there is still much work to be done.

Our diplomats' job is to re-evaluate President Prabowo's speech at the World Economic Forum. During his term, I am confident Prabowo will complete the work he outlined. He has conveyed this to the world, so this should be a guide for officials and policymakers. If there are no significant changes next year, their performance will be questionable.

Teguh Santosa: Professional Media and Journalist

In addition to being a lecturer at several universities and a researcher at the GREAT Institute, Teguh Santosa has been entrusted with the position of General Chair of the Indonesian Cyber ​​Media Network (JMSI). "My job is to help cyber media owners who are members of JMSI build professional media companies," said the man born in Medan on July 30, 1975.

Teguh doesn't have a particularly ambitious definition of professionalism for a cyber media outlet; the important thing is that it can become an institution that provides a livelihood for journalists and employees who join the outlet.

He believes the current challenge for media is how to create quality journalism. "I actually have a lot of notes on the press today. But the most important thing is quality journalism. This is a tough job: how can we produce journalists who can produce quality work? Their character must be innate and their skills must be developed. And the standard of living for journalists must be supported through their respective press companies," explained the lecturer in International Relations at UIN Ciputat, LSPR, and Bung Karno University (UBK) Jakarta.

According to Teguh, there is a significant correlation between a professional press company and quality press output. "There is indeed a link between a professional press company and quality press output. My job there is to help my fellow cyber media owners become quality outlets. And the challenge is not easy," he emphasized.

Another equally challenging challenge today, Teguh Santosa continued, is technological advances that can both facilitate and distract. "Artificial Intelligence (AI) can have a positive impact on journalism, but it can also have the opposite effect. It can make journalists lazy and uncritical. Therefore, journalists must be careful," said the geopolitics and international relations expert.

Choosing a Different Path

Before becoming a lecturer and researcher, Teguh was a journalist. He worked for the Rakyat Merdeka newspaper (Jawa Pos Group) after graduating from Padjadjaran University in Bandung.

He learned a lot from this publication and gained experience, including carrying out journalistic assignments abroad. "I love reading and traveling. I love looking at history because it can guide us on our path forward," said Teguh, who pursued his master's degree at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, USA, from 2007 to 2009. He received an International Fellowships Program (IFP) scholarship from the Ford Foundation.

"When I started my studies in Hawaii, the first thing my professor emphasized was that a futurologist must love history. Because history is a mirror. When we look at temples or other historical relics, we can see the greatness of the humans of that era, who were able to create structures that could last for hundreds or even thousands of years," he explained.

While carrying out journalistic assignments around the world, he gained many valuable experiences. "My first assignment abroad as a journalist was to Afghanistan (2001). At the time, six Indonesian journalists wanted to go to Afghanistan, including one from Rakyat Merdeka, but they were detained in Pakistan. After that, I was also assigned to Afghanistan," he explained.

Because his colleagues were unable to enter Afghanistan through Pakistan, Teguh didn't want to experience a similar experience. He chose another route to enter Afghanistan. "If I had followed the same route, I would have also been detained in Pakistan. So I chose another route through Uzbekistan. There was a road built by the Soviet army that crossed the Amu Darya River," he recounted. His travels and journalistic assignments were not only published for the media that sent him, but also published in a book entitled *Di Tepi Amu Darya*.

In addition to the Afghan border, Teguh Santosa was also assigned to cover the war raging in Iraq. This time, he also chose not to follow the usual route used by many Indonesian journalists, which was to enter through Jordan. "Given the state of relations between Jordan and Iraq at the time, I chose the route from Damascus, Syria. I wrote about my trip to Iraq in a book entitled *On the Banks of the Euphrates*," said Teguh, who has traveled as a journalist to North Korea, South Korea, China, France, Italy, Morocco, Venezuela, and many other countries.

"Venezuela is certainly not a match for the US. However, kidnapping a president and his wife alive without any casualties is an extraordinary feat."