Rupiah is Projected to Weaken Limited, Market Waiting for BI RDG Results
JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 is expected to move weakly against the US dollar (USD).
To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Tuesday, January 20, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.01 percent to Rp16,956 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.27 percent to the price level of IDR16,981 per US dollar.
Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong said the rupiah is expected to move consolidated against the US dollar with limited potential for weakening and market participants are still waiting for the results of the BI Governor's Meeting (RDGBI) this afternoon.
"The rupiah is expected to consolidate against the US dollar with limited potential for weakening, investors are waiting for the results of the RDGBI this afternoon," he told VOI, Wednesday, January 21.
Although the US dollar is under pressure, he said the rupiah is still overshadowed by a number of negative sentiments, such as concerns about the budget deficit, the prospect of a decline in BI interest rates, and the re-emergence of the issue of BI independence after the nomination of Prabowo's nephew as deputy governor of BI.
"Although the US dollar itself is still depressed, the rupiah is also burdened by many things such as concerns about the budget deficit and the prospect of BI interest rate cuts. Concerns about BI independence also re-emerged after the nomination of Prabowo's nephew as deputy governor of BI," he explained.
Lukman estimates that the movement of the rupiah on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 will be in the range of Rp16,900-Rp17,000 per US dollar.
Meanwhile, money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi, revealed that concerns about the potential for a re-escalation of the global trade war have increased, following US President Donald Trump's statement that he plans to impose an additional 10 percent tariff starting February 1 on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland, and the United Kingdom.
He added that the tariff could even be raised to 25 percent on June 1 if an agreement on Greenland is not reached.
According to Ibrahim, the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom seem ready to take countermeasures, namely the EU is reportedly preparing counter tariffs worth up to 93 billion euros against US products, as well as considering restrictions on American companies' access to the European market.
"Meanwhile, European lawmakers announced that they would freeze the ratification of the trade agreement signed by Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen last summer," he said in his statement, quoted Wednesday, January 21.
Ibrahim said regarding the interest rate outlook, the majority of analysts assessed that the US Federal Reserve would hold its monetary easing policy at the end of this month's meeting, as the labor market conditions are still solid.
Based on the FedWatch CME tool, the market only estimates a 5 percent chance of a rate cut at the Fed's January meeting.
Ibrahim predicted that the rupiah would move fluctuatio on Wednesday, January 21, 2026 in the price range of IDR 16,950 - IDR 16,980 per US dollar.