Economy Slows Down, Tradition of Eid Homecoming 2026 is Predicted to Remain Popular

JAKARTA - The tradition of Lebaran homecoming is still expected to remain the main agenda of the Indonesian people in 2026, even though the economic condition is facing various challenges.

Cultural factors and family ties are considered to be the main driving force for people's movements every Eid, which is difficult to replace by economic considerations alone.

Transportation observer Djoko Setijowarno assessed that the Lebaran homecoming 2026 as a cultural need will not experience a significant decline, even though people's purchasing power is depressed due to inflation and subsidy adjustments.

"The prediction of Eid homecoming mobility in 2026 in the midst of the current economic conditions shows that the homecoming phenomenon is still on the road, the wallet is still calculated," said the Indonesian Transportation Community Advisory Council (MTI) Center as quoted by ANTARA.

He explained that the pattern of community movement during Lebaran is different from the Christmas and New Year (Nataru) period. If during Nataru people tend to hold off on travel due to extreme weather factors at the end of the year or the need for education costs, then Lebaran homecoming is actually driven by the disbursement of holiday allowances (THR) and the strong annual tradition.

According to Djoko, Lebaran 2026 homecoming still has the potential to become the largest peak of mobility in Indonesia, different from the situation of Nataru 2025/2026 which is observed to be more gentle in a number of regions.

He assessed that travel during the Nataru period was more flexible and identical to tourist activities, while Lebaran homecoming had a strong cultural and religious dimension that was difficult for most people to leave.

Djoko also reminded that the smooth traffic that occurred during Nataru could not necessarily be a picture of the Eid homecoming condition, considering the different travel characteristics.

"The Nataru season is mostly for tourism and the number of long-distance motorcycle users is very low," he said.

On the other hand, during Lebaran, the main purpose of travelers is to return to their hometowns to gather with their families, so the use of motorcycles for long-distance travel is much more dominant.

"People who are mobile will also be more during the Eid homecoming than Nataru," said Djoko.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Transportation noted that the realization of the number of people who traveled within and between provinces throughout Indonesia during Lebaran 2025 reached around 154.6 million people. This figure has decreased slightly by 4.69 percent compared to Lebaran 2024 which was recorded as 162.2 million people.

The Ministry of Transportation emphasized that the decline was not directly related to the weakening of people's purchasing power.

The total national movement during the 2025 Lebaran transportation, which took place from March 21 to April 11, 2025, was recorded at around 358,211,415 movements. The data is sourced from mobile positioning data (MPD) of mobile operators.

For the use of public transportation, the Ministry of Transportation recorded 27,505,543 passengers during the 2025 Lebaran period. This number actually increased by 8.50 percent compared to the previous year which recorded 25,349,916 passengers.

Meanwhile, the projection of the number of community movements during Lebaran 2026 is still in the counting stage by the Ministry of Transportation.