Indonesian Crude Oil Prices Fall due to Excess Global Supply

JAKARTA - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that the world's excess supply of oil caused the average Indonesian crude price (ICP) in December 2025 to fall to 61.1 US dollars per barrel.

"The decline in the ICP rate in December 2025 is due to market concerns about the super glut or excess supply narrative, as well as the condition of world oil oversupply which is influenced by high US production," said Director General of Oil and Gas (Dirjen Migas) of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Laode Sulaeman, quoted by Antara.

In addition, the decline in oil prices was also caused by the increase in OPEC+ production.

Laode said there was an increase in OPEC+ production in November 2025 compared to November 2024 or month over month (mom), to 43.1 million barrels per day (bph).

OPEC revised its forecast for non-OPEC+ countries' production growth in 2025 compared to 2024 in the December 2025 publication, up by 40 thousand bph compared to November 2025 to 0.95 million bph.

Meanwhile, S&P Global revised its 2025 demand growth projection, down by 16 thousand bph to 730 thousand bph in the December 2025 publication compared to the previous month.

On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a 2026 oil surplus of 3.7-4 million barrels per day (bpd), exceeding stocks during the pandemic.

Furthermore, Laode stated that another factor that caused the decline in ICP was the potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk after the offer of cancellation of the aspiration to join NATO by Ukraine.

Not only that, Russian officials also conveyed a projection of an increase in oil production in 2025 to 10.36 million bpd and will increase again in 2026 to reach 10.54 million bpd.

"The decline in ICP in December was due to an increase in world oil supplies," said Laode.

Meanwhile, for the Asia Pacific region, the change in crude oil prices, in addition to being caused by these factors, is also influenced by China's crude throughput which fell by 0.9 percent mom in November 2025 to 14.86 million bph. This figure is the lowest in the last 6 months.

The December 2025 ICP shows a decrease of 1.73 US dollars per barrel from the November 2025 ICP of 62.83 US dollars per barrel.

The determination of the December 2025 ICP at 61.10 US dollars per barrel is listed in the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 10.K/MG.03/MEM.M/2026 concerning the Crude Oil Price for December 2025.

The development of the average price of major crude oil in December 2025 compared to November 2025 experienced a decrease as follows:

Dated Brent fell by 0.95 US dollars per barrel, from 63.65 US dollars per barrel to 62.70 US dollars per barrel; WTI (Nymex) fell by 1.61 US dollars per barrel, from 59.48 US dollars per barrel to 57.87 US dollars per barrel; and Brent (ICE) fell by 2.02 US dollars per barrel, from 63.66 US dollars per barrel to 61.64 US dollars per barrel.

Then, the OPEC basket fell by 2.61 US dollars per barrel, from 64.46 US dollars per barrel to 61.85 US dollars per barrel; and the average ICP price of Indonesian crude oil fell by 1.73 US dollars per barrel, from 62.83 US dollars per barrel to 61.10 US dollars per barrel.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that the world's excess supply of oil caused the average Indonesian crude price (ICP) in December 2025 to fall to 61.1 US dollars per barrel.

"The decline in the ICP rate in December 2025 is due to market concerns about the super glut or excess supply narrative, as well as the world's oversupply condition which is influenced by high US production," said Director General of Oil and Gas (Dirjen Migas) of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Laode Sulaeman in an official statement quoted from Jakarta, Friday.