When Indonesia Stops Importing

Indonesia opened 2026 with a record of achievements that could be said to be extraordinary. Rice production jumped. Imports stopped. Food surplus alias self-sufficiency. This achievement reminds us of the era of rice self-sufficiency in 1984. At that time, Indonesia had a rice reserve of 2 million tons and was recognized by the world. In 1985, President Soeharto even received an award from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in Rome.

The Central Statistics Agency projects that national rice production from January to December 2025 will reach 34.77 million tons, up 13.54 percent compared to the previous year. This is not just a statistical figure. It reflects a change in the direction of food policy which has been full of anxiety.

The Cabinet Secretariat on its website said rice production in 2025 was at 34.71 million tons. With a national consumption of around 31.19 million tons, Indonesia recorded a surplus of 3.52 million tons and did not import consumer rice throughout 2025. For the first time in a long time, dependence on foreign markets was consciously broken.

Government rice reserve stocks at Perum Bulog at the end of 2025 were recorded at 3.2-3.24 million tons. In the middle of the year, stocks even touched 4-4.2 million tons. This is the highest record in the history of national food management.

At this point, the direction of policy began to change from survival to confidence. The Minister of Agriculture and Head of the National Food Agency, Andi Amran Sulaiman, stated that Indonesia was almost certain to be able to export rice in 2026. The condition is one. The absorption of Bulog is safe for domestic needs for at least the next three months.

This export plan is not just a matter of trade. It marks a change in Indonesia's position in the world rice market. For decades, Indonesia has been known as a major buyer. Now, when imports are stopped, the impact is felt abroad.

Amran said the policy of not importing rice from Indonesia also put pressure on global rice prices. The world rice price, according to him, fell from around 650 US dollars per metric ton to 340 US dollars, or fell by about 44 percent. According to Amran, supplies from exporting countries are piling up because Indonesia is no longer absorbing them.

Domestically, this surplus is not paid for by farmers. The government set the Government Purchase Price for Dry Crop Rice (GKP) at IDR 6,500 per kilogram through Presidential Instruction Number 6 of 2025. Data from the Food Price Panel shows that throughout 2025 the national rice price has never fallen below this limit.

The impact is reflected clearly on welfare. The Farmer Exchange Rate (NTP) in 2025 reached 125.35, the highest in the last 25 years. This is not a cosmetic figure. It shows that farmers' purchasing power has really increased.

The agricultural sector is also showing a new face. The value of national agricultural exports from January to October 2025 reached IDR 629.7 trillion, growing 33.6 percent compared to the same period last year. Agriculture is no longer just a savior sector, but has begun to play a role as an economic driver.

The 2025 rice self-sufficiency is a record. History records that Indonesia has ever achieved self-sufficiency, then slipped because of the changing policies when pressure came. This year's surplus was born from a combination of maintained prices, disciplined Bulog absorption, and increased farmer production.

President Prabowo Subianto has begun to expand this agenda to other commodities. Corn is the next target. If corn self-sufficiency is achieved, feed costs will fall and food stability will be wider. But all of this is only possible if policy consistency is maintained.

At the end of this story, the question is simple. Will this food self-sufficiency be maintained when a crisis comes? Or will it collapse when imports are again considered a shortcut?

Rice surplus gives Indonesia breathing room. The courage to defend it will determine whether this self-sufficiency is history, or just a short pause before old mistakes are repeated. And the main point is whether farmers are prosperous? Does self-sufficiency increase the economy and the standard of living of farmers?