Rupiah Projected to Consolidate, Strengthening is Still Limited

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Friday, December 19, is expected to strengthen limited against the US dollar.

Citing data from Bloomberg, Thursday, December 18, 2025, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.17 percent to Rp16,723 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.14 percent to a price level of Rp16,722 per US dollar.

Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong assessed that the rupiah has the opportunity to strengthen as inflation pressure in the United States eases, which opens up the opportunity for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

"The rupiah has the potential to strengthen against the US dollar after inflation data showed easing price pressures in the US, improving the prospect of a Fed rate cut," he told VOI, Friday, December 19.

However, he added that the strengthening of the rupiah was not expected to be significant because it was still overshadowed by the potential for a rate cut by Bank Indonesia.

"However, the strengthening may be limited, given that the rupiah is also still under pressure from the prospect of a BI interest rate cut," he explained.

Meanwhile, money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi revealed that uncertainty in the United States economy has increased in the past week and this was triggered by official government data that provided diverse signals regarding the labor market conditions.

"The Federal Reserve's asset purchase operations have also triggered some concerns about market liquidity in the country," he said in his statement, quoted on Friday, December 19.

He added that market participants are currently waiting for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data as an indication of the US economy and are expected to experience a slight increase, while core inflation is projected to remain stable at around 3 percent on an annual basis.

According to him, the labor market and inflation conditions are still the main factors for the Fed in determining the direction of monetary policy.

However, the market is also watching the potential risk of stagflation, which is a situation when the unemployment rate increases amid high inflation.

Ibrahim predicted that the rupiah would move fluctuatio on Friday, December 19 in the price range of Rp16,720 - Rp16,750 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, Lukman projected the movement of the rupiah on Friday, December 19, moving in the range of Rp16,650 per US dollar to Rp16,750 per US dollar.