Purbaya: The weakening of the rupiah is more controlled than other developing countries.

JAKARTA - Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa is optimistic that the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar will strengthen in the future.

He assessed that the weakening of the rupiah that occurred was still considered under control when compared to the currencies of a number of other developing countries, such as India, Turkey, and Argentina.

"The depreciation of the rupiah is still relatively moderate compared to other emerging countries, such as India, Turkey and Argentina," he said in a press conference on the Kita APBN, Thursday, December 18.

According to Purbaya, the stability of the rupiah movement is a positive signal for market participants' confidence in the improving Indonesian economic fundamentals.

He explained that in the domestic financial market, foreign capital flows again recorded inflows and this was supported by the market's decreasing expectations of the rupiah depreciation, as well as the maintenance of exchange rate risk and the risk of the Indonesian state at a low level.

"If you look at the risk of depreciation, it decreases, it means that the arrow goes down, it shows that the expectation of depreciation (rupee) decreases. That is, the rupiah strengthens in the future," he explained.

Furthermore, Purbaya said that the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) in the second half of 2025 showed a strengthening trend, although it had experienced corrections and fluctuated.

"In the government bond market, yield reductions have occurred in many emerging countries. Meanwhile, many developed countries have actually experienced yield increases due to increased fiscal pressures," he said.

Regarding the global economic outlook, Purbaya assessed that the condition was still quite solid, even though the trade tensions between the United States and China had not completely eased.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve, again lowered interest rates in line with market expectations and the easing of monetary policy is expected to support global economic growth in the range of 3 percent in the period 2025-2026.

In terms of real sector activity, he said the Global Manufacturing PMI index until November remained in the expansion zone and a number of developing countries, including Indonesia, also showed a fairly strong manufacturing sector performance.

"Global commodity prices are still fluctuating with the tendency to weaken energy, nickel and CPO, Brent oil prices, coal and nickel prices are recorded to weaken both year to date and year on year, especially triggered by concerns over oversupply," he said.

Purbaya said CPO prices have contracted year to date since October 2025 due to increased production, although on an annual basis it is still growing by 9.4 percent.

On the other hand, he added that copper prices recorded a strengthening both year to date and year on year, driven by concerns over supply disruptions, US tariff policies on processed copper, and the easing of US monetary policy that is expansionary.