Sales Of The IPhone 17 Trigger Apple's Record Year, Global Market Moves To Higher Price
JAKARTA - Apple seems to be the main driver of the global smartphone market by 2025. Recent estimates from the International Data Corporation show the company dominates almost the entire market growth, even though dark clouds in the form of potential memory crises have lurked the following year.
IDC projects global smartphone shipments to reach 1.25 billion units by 2025, up 1.5 percent slightly compared to the previous year. The biggest push comes from Apple's performance in the holiday period, recovery in sales in China, and growing demand in emerging markets.
Apple is predicted to send 247.4 million iPhone units next year, growing 6.1 percent from the previous year. This places 2025 as the strongest year in Apple's smartphone history. Demand for the iPhone 17 line is the main reason, especially in key areas. In China, Apple's market share even penetrated 20 percent throughout October and November 2025.
Analysts initially predicted the Chinese market would fall by one percent, but the latest revision showed three percent growth. This small change is enough to push global shipments back into the positive zone.
Mobile operators also feel the interest of this momentum. The surge in flagship devices has attracted customers to lock long-term contracts, while demand for premium devices is stable in the United States and Western Europe. IDC estimates Apple's revenue from smartphone lines will soar to US$261 billion by 2025, growing 7.2 percent on an annual basis.
2026 Will Be A Tough Year
The sweet story has the potential to stop in 2026. IDC revised next year's projection from small growth to one percent contraction, as the number of devices sent to the market decreased.
The main cause is the memory supply crisis. Storage and RAM components are expected to be rarer and more expensive, hitting vendors playing in the lower and middle class Android segments. With tight margins, rising component prices drag them on difficult choices.
The average selling price of smartphones is predicted to rise to $465 in 2026, despite the total down shipments. The overall market value is even projected to reach $579 billion paradoxes showing fewer phones but more money spinning.
This condition makes entry-level buyers the most disadvantaged party. When component prices increase, cheap devices usually sacrifice memory quality, storage, or cameras. Some manufacturers are predicted to increase prices, while others encourage consumers to a slightly more expensive model to maintain margins.
Apple itself plans to reschedule its next-generation iPhone launch schedule, from fall 2026 to early 2027. IDC estimates this move will lead to a decline in iOS shipments by more than four percent by 2026, although promotions could dampen its impact.
Premium devices such as top-class iPhones have wider space to absorb memory cost increases. On the other hand, Android vendors who rely on aggressive prices will face a dilemma: cutting specifications or raising prices.
Meanwhile, consumers are increasingly relaxed in changing devices. Intermediate-class iPhone 16e or Android users tend to wait three to four years before the upgrade. This cycle gives them enough time to pay attention to price increases and slowly retreats.
However, there is still little room for optimism. Demand in the market continues to improve, and some users may speed up purchases to the end of 2025 to avoid higher prices by 2026.
If IDC's projections are right, 2025 will be the year when the global market hits the momentum of Apple, before entering the full 2026 of customization: fewer devices, more expensive, and more complicated competition.