Rupiah Potentially Strengthen, Supported By Optimism After US Government Shutdown
JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Tuesday, November 11, 2025 is predicted to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Monday, November 10, the rupiah spot exchange closed higher by 0.22 percent to the level of IDR 16,654 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.23 percent at a price level of IDR 16,666 per US dollar.
Doo Financial Futures analyst Lukman Leong considers that the rupiah has a strong chance of strengthening against the US dollar, along with increased risk-on sentiment due to optimism over the end of the closure of the government (shutdown) in the United States.
"The rupiah has the potential to strengthen against the US dollar, supported by risk on sentiment from the US government's hopes of ending the shutdown," he told VOI, Tuesday, November 11.
In addition, he added that market participants are currently also waiting for the release of Indonesia's retail sales data, which was previously scheduled to come out on Monday but has its release postponed.
"Investors are looking forward to Indonesia's unreleased retail sales data Monday," he said.
Likewise, money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that market participants are still speculating about the possibility of The Federal Reserve (The Fed) lowering the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in December 2025.
He added that this expectation arose after data from the private sector, particularly the US labor market, showed weakening in the past week.
Meanwhile, the Challenger report revealed that the United States recorded the largest wave of layoffs in the last two decades in October.
"The data raises speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates to prevent further weakening labor markets," he said in his statement.
Based on CME FedWatch data, the chance of lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December was recorded at around 61.9 percent.
In addition, Ibrahim added that market sentiment was also driven by the US Senate's decision to continue discussing the government funding bill, which is expected to end the closure of the longest-serving government in US history.
"Senat has voted 60-40 to consider the spending bill, and will hold the final vote in the coming days," he explained.
He conveyed that the bill also ended the filibutary by the Democratic Party in the Senate, which has been the main factor in the continued closure of government.
"Finally closing the government is also expected to open the door for other US economic data releases in the coming days," he said.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading on Tuesday, November 11, 2025 in the price range of IDR 16,600 - IDR 16,660 per US dollar. Meanwhile, Lukman projects the movement of the rupiah, moving in the range of IDR 16,600 per US dollar to IDR 16,700 per US dollar.