Rupiah Wednesday Predicted Limited Weakening, US Employment Data Release Wait Market

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate is estimated to fluctuate with a tendency to weaken limited to trading on Wednesday, November 5, along with the dominance of external sentiment originating from the United States (US).

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, the rupiah spot exchange closed lower by 0.19 percent to the level of Rp. 16,708 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.36 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,724 per US dollar.

HFX International Futures President Commissioner Sutopo Widodo said today's Rupiah movement would be greatly influenced by the development of US economic data and statements by Federal Reserve (The Fed) officials, although domestic factors still provide support for exchange rate stability.

Sutopo menjelaskan penguatan Dollar AS menjadi faktor utama yang menekan nilai tukar rupiah dimana sinyal hawkish dari pejabat The Fed, seperti Lisa Cook dan Austan Goolsbee, menunjukkan kehati-hatitan terhadap pemcutan suku bunga pada Desember mendatang.

"This increases the demand for Dollars as a safe haven asset and makes emerging market assets like Rupiah less attractive," he told VOI, Wednesday, November 5.

In addition, he added that the market is waiting for the release of US employment data, namely the ADP Workforce Change Report (ADP Non-Farm Employment Change) which is scheduled for release Wednesday night Indonesian time.

According to him, if the data shows stronger results than expected, the US dollar has the potential to strengthen further because the Fed has reasons to delay the easing of its monetary policy.

However, Sutopo assessed that a number of domestic factors could withstand the deeper weakening of the Rupiah, namely Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to remain active in intervening in foreign exchange markets to maintain exchange rate stability, especially after the Rupiah weakened to the level of Rp. 16,700 per US Dollar.

In addition, he conveyed that Indonesia's trade balance surplus, which is still maintained, is considered to be a strong foundation for the national economy and can provide support for the Rupiah exchange rate.

"Given the dominant sentiment of strengthening the US Dollar driven by the Fed's signal, the Rupiah is expected to move in a higher price range (weaker) than previous closures," he explained.

Taking into account all these factors, Sutopo estimates that the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar on Wednesday, November 5, 2025 will move in the range of Rp. 16,650 per US dollar to Rp. 16,780 per US dollar.

"It should be remembered that the upper limit could be broken if the release of US ADP data released on Wednesday night (US time) showed a figure much stronger than expected," he explained.