Economic Growth In The Third Quarter Of 2025 Will Be Supported By Government Exports And Expenditures

BUKITTINGGI Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that Indonesia's economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 will be supported by the performance of government exports and expenditures.

Director of the BI's Department of Economic Policy and Monetary, Juli Budi Winantya explained that based on the latest economic indicators, these two factors were the main drivers of economic growth during that period.

"In the third quarter, based on the latest indicators, because the official data will only come out in early November, we estimate that economic growth will be driven by two main things, namely government exports and spending," he said in a journalist training, Friday, October 24.

Furthermore, July explained that the exports of several leading commodities, such as palm oil and iron, still recorded strong growth, especially in the Indian and Chinese markets.

According to him, this increase in exports will make a positive contribution to the national economic rate in the third quarter of 2025.

In terms of government spending, he conveyed various priority programs, including infrastructure development and projects in the energy sector, as well as additional economic policy packages, helped strengthen domestic demand and support economic growth in the same period.

With this development, July considered that Indonesia's economic performance in the second semester of 2025 was expected to be better than the first semester of 2025.

He also emphasized that this achievement could not be separated from BI's monetary policy, such as the management of benchmark interest rates and liquidity policies.

"In addition, the government also said that there would be additional social assistance to be distributed in the fourth quarter, and this is expected to encourage better economic growth in the second semester," he explained.

Previously, BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said the latest developments showed that economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 was supported by an increase in exports in anticipation of the imposition of US reciprocal tariffs, especially in palm oil (CPO) and steel commodities.

Meanwhile, he explained that domestic demand still needs to be strengthened so that it can increase household consumption and investment.

Perry added that Government spending contributed to strengthening domestic demand and economic growth in the third quarter of 2025.

Meanwhile, based on the Business Field (LU), economic growth is driven by the performance of the production of LU Agricultural, LU Processing, and LU Trading industries which remain good.

Perry conveyed that spatially, the growth of the Java and Sumatra regions is predicted to be better than the forecast driven by the LU of the Agricultural Processing and LU Industry.

"In the whole second semester of 2025, economic growth is predicted to improve in line with the implementation of the Government's priority projects related to the 2025 Government's Food, Energy, Defense and Security and Economic Policy Packages, including social assistance which will be distributed in the fourth quarter of 2025," he explained at a press conference, Wednesday, October 22.

He added that Bank Indonesia will also continue to strengthen the policy mix through strengthening the mix of monetary, macroprudential, and payment systems in synergy with fiscal stimulus policies and the real sector of the Government to encourage national economic growth.

According to him, with these developments, overall economic growth in 2025 will be slightly above the midpoint of the range of 4.6 percent to 5.4 percent and increase in 2026.