Rupiah Is Predicted To Weaken, Global Pressure And Economic Projection Are In The Spotlight

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, October 15 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, October 14, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.18 percent to the level of Rp. 16,603 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.02 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,577 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi delivered a statement by US President Donald Trump threatening to charge a 100 percent tariff on products from China.

According to him, this threat has sparked strong criticism from Beijing, which also hints that it will take retaliatory action, but the two countries appear to be trying to ease tensions and explore reconciliation efforts.

"US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that Trump will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. Bessent also said that Washington and Beijing are continuing to negotiate further trade progress," he said in a statement, quoted Wednesday, October 15.

In addition, Ibrahim said that the market anticipates two more cuts in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (The Fed) until the end of the year, this helps keep US bond yields (Treasury) low.

Meanwhile, based on the CME FedWatch interest rate monitoring tool, the Fed's chances of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at the October 29 meeting reached 97 percent.

On the other hand, today's market attention is also focused on the statement of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in discussions on economic prospects and monetary policy at the Annual Meeting of the National Business Economic Association in Philadelphia.

Meanwhile, the report of the US Consumer Price Index (JCI), which was originally scheduled for release on Wednesday this week, was postponed until October 24 due to the closure of part of government operations.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim assessed that the Indonesian economy is showing strong resilience amid global uncertainty, because the national economic outlook remains positive, supported by solid growth, stable inflation, and improving export performance, in line with the trend of decreasing global interest rates.

However, a number of international institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, OECD, and the Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR) updated Indonesia's projected economic growth for 2025 to below 5 percent, lower than the government's target, even from pessimistic scenarios.

Even so, the IMF has revised the increase in projections for global economic growth, reflecting the growing optimism. For Indonesia, the IMF raised its economic growth projection by 2025 from 4.7 percent to 4.8 percent and the Government itself is optimistic that the realization of growth could exceed that projection.

Ibrahim said export performance also showed positive developments, based on Customs and Excise data until August 2025, Indonesia's exports grew 7.8 percent on an annual basis, driven by the mineral processing and downstream sector, especially nickel and copper.

In addition, the cumulative trade balance from January to August 2025 jumped 52.3 percent compared to the same period last year, reflecting the increasingly strong competitiveness of national exports amid the dynamics of global tariffs.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading Wednesday, October 15, 2025, in the price range of Rp16,600 - Rp16,650 per US dollar.