Ukraine's Frequent Attacks on Russian Energy and Fuel Infrastructure: What Will the Long-Term Effects Be?

JAKARTA - Ukraine has targeted Russian refineries and energy and fuel infrastructure, with more than 30 attacks since early August 2025. The attacks are suspected to be aimed at weakening Russia's ability to finance its war against Ukraine.

So, what are the consequences of these attacks?

According to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Russia is the world's third-largest crude oil producer and the second-largest crude oil exporter. Russia's oil and gas revenues accounted for about 30 percent of the State Budget (APN) in 2024, making it the largest source of state funds.

"The Ukrainian offensive has so far been quite effective" in this regard, with Russian refinery production levels having "dropped by about 10 percent," Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at energy research group Kpler, told AFP.

Facing the risk of shortages, Russia recently restricted petroleum product exports until the end of the year and extended a ban on gasoline exports.

Rystad Energy analyst Janiv Shah said that Russian refinery production fell to an average of 4.9 million barrels per day in mid-September, down about 400,000 barrels per day compared to the first half of 2025.

The shortage of Russian refined products has significantly widened the gap between the price of a barrel of Russian crude and refined products.

The impact on prices at the pump is already being felt. As of September 1, retail gasoline prices were 6.7 percent higher than at the end of 2024, according to Russia's official statistics agency. Rosstat.

This occurred despite a sharp drop in the price of a barrel of crude oil during the same period.

Long-term effects?

Shah added that this situation has the potential to be detrimental to Russia because damaged infrastructure usually takes a "long time" to return to normal operation.

This occurs at a time when revenue from Russian crude oil has been particularly affected by the decline in global prices as the market expects a supply glut in the coming months.

SEB Bank analyst Bjarne Schieldrop believes "the situation is likely to worsen... as Ukraine becomes more adept at attacking Russian refineries," and predicts an end to exports of all Russian oil products and the imposition of domestic rationing.

The US envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has raised the possibility of a long-range attack by Ukraine on Russia using American weapons.

In trying to export some of the oil destined for its refineries, Russia faces difficult logistical challenges, while the number of countries willing to import more of its crude is limited.

Attack versus sanctions?

So far, international sanctions aimed at weakening Russia have "not worked," said Adi Imsirovic, director of the Surrey Clean Energy consultancy.

"The delay in implementing certain sanctions gives Russian President Vladimir Putin time to establish a parallel trading system," he added.

The doubling of US tariffs on many Indian products has failed to curb the country's purchases of Russian crude.

On the other hand, with the withdrawal of Western oil companies from Russia, investment in the country's energy infrastructure has declined drastically, limiting its ability to increase crude oil production in the coming years.