RI Potentially Loss Of State Revenue Reaches 654.5 Billion US Dollars Due To Export Manipulation

JAKARTA The NEXT Indonesia Center estimates that Indonesia will lose a potential state revenue of up to US$654.5 billion due to export data manipulation in the last 10 years (2014-2023).

The difference in export recording between Indonesia and trading partner countries is known as illicit financial flows (IFF), and in many cases it is caused by the practice of misinvoiting, namely fraud in reporting export value.

NEXT Indonesia Center Executive Director Christiantoko explained that this practice is part of financial crimes through engineering export records, both in the form of under-invoiting and over-invoiting

He explained that first, under-voicing occurs in this case, the volume or value of exports recorded in Indonesia is lower than that recorded by trading partner countries.

As for the decade, the difference in listings is worth 401.6 billion US dollars or an average of around 40.2 billion US dollars per year.

Next, the second over-invoicing is that the record in Indonesia is greater than the record of partner countries, where in the past decade, the value has reached 252.9 billion US dollars or around 25.3 billion US dollars.

The difference in recording exports is the potential for state revenue to be lost. In general, the difference in recording is efforts to avoid taxes and excise, launder money from crimes, and hide profits abroad," he said in his statement, Wednesday, September 10.

Christiantoko said that in calculating the flow of stealth funds from exports, his party used an international method, which was issued by the Global Financial Integrity (GFI).

Meanwhile, the agency is a Washington DC-based think tank, the United States that focuses on the flow of illicit funds or stealth funds (illicit financial flows), corruption, illicit trade and money laundering.

Furthermore, Christiantoko explained, from the search, for export under-invoiting, the largest value occurred in Indonesia's transactions with China.

He said that in the 2014-2023 period, the value reached 53 billion US dollars or around Rp. 863 trillion or an average of Rp. 86.3 trillion per year (the middle exchange rate of Bank Indonesia as of June 22, 2025, amounting to Rp. 16,283).

Christiantoko said that the proportion of Indonesia's export transactions with China was around 13.19 percent of the total under-involving value in the last 10 years which was worth 401.6 billion US dollars or Rp6,539.3 trillion.

Meanwhile, the difference in export records to Singapore was in second place with an under-voiting value of 46.4 billion US dollars, followed by the United States worth 32.7 billion US dollars.

The government must seriously explore the potential for lost income so as to reduce the opportunity to increase tax rates. Moreover, the manipulation of export records is an act of financial crime, "said Christiantoko.

In terms of commodities, the largest under-invoiting records during the 2014-2023 period were waste and screens of precious metals or precious metal-coated metals (HS: 7112), which was worth 15.4 billion US dollars.

Christiantoko explained that the commodity is a waste or product of the processing industry or used goods that contain compounds or precious metal layers.

According to him, this waste has the potential to be reprocessed to get precious metals, such as gold.

He conveyed that the commodities that recorded the second largest under-invoiting value in the past decade were petroleum (HS: 2710) which reached 14.9 billion US dollars.

Then in third place, namely coal (HS: 2701) with a difference in export recordings worth 12.8 billion US dollars.

As for over pricing cases, the highest value was recorded by Indonesia's export commodities to Singapore, reaching 24.2 billion US dollars in the 2014-2023 period. That is, there is a potential for dark funds to enter Indonesia of around Rp394.2 trillion.

Bangladesh and Malaysia complement the top three Indonesian trading partner countries that record the highest over-invoiting.

The value of the stealth funds from the two countries reached US$20.21 billion and US$17.24 billion, respectively.

Pada periode 10 tahun itu, total over-invoicing ekspor Indonesia tercatat 252,87 miliar dolar AS, atau Rp4.117,5 triliun.

Dengan demikian, senilai itu pula potensi masuknya dana gelap ke Indonesia.

“Mungkin uang tersebut saat ini sudah dianggap halal, karena dapat didalilkan sebagai aliran dana dari hasil perdagangan. Padahal, kegiatan ekspornya sambil memanipulasi faktur,” katanya.

In that 10-year period, Indonesia's total over-involving exports was recorded at US$252.87 billion, or Rp.4,117.5 trillion.

Thus, it is also worth the potential for the entry of dark funds into Indonesia.

"Maybe the money is currently considered halal, because it can be argued as a flow of funds from trade results. In fact, the export activities while manipulating the invoices," he said.