Global Sentiment Presses Rupiah, Market Awaits The Fed's Risalah

JAKARTA - President Commissioner of HFX International Futures Sutopo Widodo said that for trading on Thursday, August 21, the movement of the rupiah is expected to continue to fluctuate with the potential for further weakening, especially if global sentiment continues to press.

"The Fed's meeting error and statements from Fed officials will be the main focus. If there is a signal that the Fed will delay the easing of monetary policy, the US dollar could strengthen sharply," he told VOI, Thursday, August 21.

Sutopo said the market will continue to digest BI's interest rate decisions and if there are concerns that a drop in interest rates that are too aggressive can trigger inflation or instability, the rupiah could continue to weaken.

He explained that the movement of the rupiah on Wednesday was observed to be stable against the US dollar where at the opening of trading, August 20, 2025, the rupiah was at the level of Rp. 16,302 per US dollar.

According to him, this is influenced by the US dollar Index (DXY) which is also relatively stable and driven by uncertainty around the Federal Reserve (The Fed) monetary policy.

"Although the market expects a decline in interest rates, investors remain cautious ahead of the release of the Fed's meeting minutes and a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole. US dollar strengthening globally suppresses other currencies, including the rupiah," he explained.

In addition, Sutopo said that the decision of Bank Indonesia (BI) which unexpectedly cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.0 percent put additional pressure on the rupiah.

He added that the decline in interest rates aims to support economic growth, but on the other hand, it can make domestic currencies less attractive to investors seeking high returns, thus driving capital flows out and weakening the rupiah.

Sutopo said, based on current conditions and existing sentiment, the rupiah exchange rate is estimated against the US dollar on Thursday, August 21, which will move in the range of Rp. 16,250 per US dollar to Rp. 16,350 per US dollar.

"This range can change rapidly depending on the release of US economic data and the development of statements from the central bank," he concluded.

Untuk diketahui, mengutip Bloomberg, nilai tukar rupiah pada hari Kamis, 21 Agustus, Kurs rupiah spot ditutup melemah 0,16 persen ke level Rp16.272 per dolar AS.

Sementara itu, kurs rupiah Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) Bank Indonesia (BI) ditutup turun 0,31 persen ke level harga Rp16.291 per dolar AS.

To note, citing Bloomberg, the rupiah exchange rate on Thursday, August 21, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed down 0.16 percent to the level of IDR 16,272 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.31 percent to a price level of IDR 16,291 per US dollar.