UN Statistics Commission Responds To Celios Report On Anomaly Data On Indonesia's Economic Growth 5.12 Percent

JAKARTA - The United Nations (UN) Statistics Commission responded to a letter sent by the Center of Economic and Laws Studies (Celios) regarding the anomaly of calculating Indonesia's economic growth by 5.12 percent on an annual basis (yoy) in the second quarter of 2025 submitted by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS).

In the email reply, the Chairman of the UN Statistics Commission Georges-Simon Ulrich expressed his appreciation for Celios' commitment to maintaining official statistical integrity and encouraging compliance with international standards.

"We appreciate your efforts to uphold official statistical integrity and promote compliance with international standards," Ulrich wrote as shared by Celios on his official Instagram account @celios_id, quoted Thursday, August 14.

Ulrich ensured that the communication and documents submitted by Celios would be forwarded to the UN Statistics Division which leads technical discussions regarding the Principles of Official Fundamental Statistics and the work of the UN Statistics Commission.

"Please be sure we will continue your communication and attached letter to the United Nations Statistics Division," he added.

"Thank you once again for conveying this issue to us," he concluded.

Previously, Celios sent a report to the United Nations containing a number of concerns over the alleged anomaly of Indonesia's economic growth data in the second quarter of 2025. The research institute highlighted aspects of the transparency of the methodology, calculation accuracy and independence of BPS in the publication of the development of gross domestic product (GDP) in the country.

Executive Director of Celios Bhima Yudhistira stated that the initiation carried out by her party was an effort to maintain the credibility of BPS data which had been used for various studies by academic institutions, banking analysts, the business world, including MSMEs and the general public.

"The letter sent to the United Nations contains a request to review data on economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 which amounted to 5.12 percent year-on-year. We are trying to review all indicators submitted by BPS, and find the manufacturing industry is growing high, even though the Manufacturing PMI recorded contractions in the same period. The manufacturing portion of GDP is also low at 18.67 percent compared to the I 2025 quarter which is 19.25 percent, which means that premature deindustrialization continues to occur," he said in his statement, Friday, August 8.

In addition, he conveyed that the mass layoff data (PHK) showed an increase and the labor-intensive industry was increasingly depressed due to the increase in various costs.

"So what is the basis for the manufacturing industry to grow 5.68 percent yoy? Non-synchronous data must certainly be answered in transparency," said Bhima.

Meanwhile, Fiscal Policy Director Celios Media Wahyudi Askar added, if there is institutional pressure or intervention in data preparation by BPS, it is against the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics adopted by the UN Statistics Commission.

He conveyed that credible data is not just a technical issue, but concerns Indonesia's international credibility and has a direct impact on people's welfare.

According to him, the inaccuracy of economic data, especially if economic growth is overestimated, risks misleading the direction of policy making.

"Imagine that with inaccurate data, the government can mistakenly postpone the stimulus, subsidies or social protection because it considers the economy to be fine. Business actors, be it big and MSMEs, investors and the public will definitely be confused and negatively affected," he said.

Celios hopes that the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and UN Statistical Commission will immediately conduct a technical investigation into Indonesia's GDP calculation method, especially in the second quarter of 2025.