Bank Mandiri Predicts Indonesia's Economics In The Second Quarter Of 2025 To Slow To 4.79 Percent

JAKARTA - Bank Mandiri's Head of Economist Andry Asmoro estimates that economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 will reach 4.79 percent year on year (yoy) or slow down compared to the first quarter of 2025 which grew by 4.87 percent (yoy).

However, on a quarterly basis or quarter to quarter (qtq), the economy is projected to grow by 3.71 percent in the second quarter of 2025, improving from a contraction of 0.98 percent in the previous quarter.

According to Andry, the slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 was mainly due to weakening household consumption.

"House consumption is expected to slow down due to seasonal factors and more selective shopping behavior. However, the increase in social assistance from the government is expected to help contain this slowdown," Andry said in a written statement, Monday, August 4.

Meanwhile, he said that investment activities are expected to grow moderately in the second quarter of 2025, as reflected in the decline in cement sales and the slowdown in banking productive credit distribution.

According to him, this shows the formation of more careful capital because the business world is still implementing a wait-and-see approach.

Andry said that government spending is expected to recover from a contraction in the previous period of 1.38 percent.

"Although total expenditures still tend to be slow, central government spending, especially for employee salaries and social programs, is expected to increase this quarter," he said.

In addition, Andry said that export growth is expected to increase in the second quarter of 2025, driven by a front-loading strategy ahead of the implementation of US import rates.

"This increase is expected to support the performance of net exports amidst the still weak global trade," he concluded.