Thailand And Cambodia Ceasefire, United States And China Strengthen Influence In Southeast Asia

JAKARTA Cambodia and Thailand have agreed to a ceasefire, with Malaysia as mediators. However, the situation was not completely calm when the shadow of competition for great powers reappeared.

Fighting between the Thai and Cambodia has broken out since Thursday (24/7/2025). This conflict rocked Southeast Asia. During the fighting, more than 250,000 people fled, at least 35 people died, and cultural heritage sites returned to being victims in attracting national interests.

But behind this ceasefire is another deeper story: about geopolitical performance, transactional diplomacy, and the outstanding question of who is truly entitled to form peace in Southeast Asia.

One of the highlights, the United States and China issued statements during the crisis. What does it mean?

The breakdown of the battle between Thailand and Cambodia on July 24 was seen suddenly, when in fact it was not at all sudden or unexpected. The relationship between the two countries has long been marked by ups and downs, mainly related to long border areas and dense forested disputes.

The cause is a border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand rooted in the unclear demarcation stemming from the 1904 French-Siam Agreement, which sets several boundaries between the Kingdom of Siam (now Thailand) and France's Indochina (now Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam).

One of the disputes between Thailand and Cambodia is the Preah Vihear Temple which actually occurred decades ago. In 2008, Cambodia tried to register a temple built in the 11th century as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. This move was met with strong protests from Thailand.

In the last two months, the two countries have imposed restrictions on each other's borders. Cambodia banned imports from Thailand such as fruits and vegetables, and stopped imports of electricity and internet services.

The fighting along the Cambodia-Thailand border marks the most serious escalation between the two countries in more than a decade.

In the midst of the battle, Malaysia as chairman of ASEAN offered to intervene. It didn't take long for the Cambodian and Thai governments to agree to meet in Putrajaya until a ceasefire was reached on July 28.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who also intervened with the negotiations, said the ceasefire was a vital first step towards deescalation and restoration of peace and security.

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet called these negotiations a very good meeting. He also hopes to stop the fighting soon.

Although this conflict involved two Southeast Asian countries, according to a number of people, this incident became a stage for two superpowers. Shortly after the ceasefire was announced, the President of the United States (US) Donald Trump gave credit to himself through uploads on social media.

"Just spoke with Acting Minister of Thailand and the Prime Minister of Cambodia. I am pleased to announce that, after the involvement of President Donald J. Trump, the two countries have reached the ARMED AND PEACE DISMISSAL. Congratulations to all!"

He added, "I have instructed the Trade Team to restart trade negotiations." This statement refers to Trump's previous comments that tariff negotiations depend on the ceasefire.

Unlike the US, China does not frame their influence in the context of coercion or trade. On the other hand, China actually strengthens its position as usual: appearing neutral while carefully aligning itself with Cambodian preferences for legal arbitration.

The Chinese government supports ASEAN's steps in resolving conflicts between its two member countries, Cambodia and Thailand.

"China maintains an attitude to be fair and impartial and continues to communicate closely with both parties, actively facilitates peace negotiations, and plays a constructive role in achieving the ceasefire," said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun.

From there it can be seen the contrast between the two countries. The US wants a quick and influential solution, while China prefers slow influence and presence. But actually these two great powers are trying to form a regional order, and both of them are observing carefully how Malaysia facilitates these negotiations.

Malaysia shows that ASEAN can still act when there is conflict in the region. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's move to host negotiations and bring the two parties together is a bold and necessary step.

The ceasefire may not materialize without such intervention, "said The Diplomat.

But there are gaps there, the principle of ASEAN's non-intervention that is upheld is increasingly untenable in the face of a militarized humanitarian and nationalism crisis. And more importantly, ASEAN risks becoming a battleground for external forces, instead of platforms for internal solidarity.

According to The Diplomat, Trump's performance diplomacy, which pressure Southeast Asian leaders through trade threats, is an effort to build bad transactional peace.

"This may give immediate results, but it weakens the local sense of ownership of conflict resolution," wrote The Diplomat.

"If peace is the result of external pressure, not internal dialogue, then peace is indeed fragile from the start."

Meanwhile, China, which looks calmer, may be considered to have more respect for sovereignty than the US. In fact, behind that, Beijing's role is also strategic. The more you can instill yourself in the ASEAN process without being impressed, then China can expand its influence quietly.

So it can be said, a ceasefire occurred, but was negotiated under the strict supervision of two superpowers and united by diplomatic ties.

The ceasefire announced between Thailand and Cambodia on July 28 was extraordinary. Not because of how the ceasefire ended the battle, but because of how the ceasefire revealed the current architecture of influence.

The US and China are both present in Southeast Asia. One shouted, the other just whispered. One offers a deal, the other offers a framework. But one thing is for sure, the two are watching, waiting, and counting.

Meanwhile, Malaysia is also in the spotlight. His role as a mediator shows that ASEAN can be more than just an observer.

But even if a ceasefire is reached, there are big questions about this incident. Can ASEAN resolve its own conflict in its own way? Or is a regional dispute now destined to be resolved only when Washington or Beijing want it?