Market Concerns Rise, Rupiah Potentially Weakens To Rp16,360 Per US Dollar

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Monday, July 28 is expected to move lower against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Friday, July 25, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.15 percent to the level of Rp. 16,320 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed lower by 0.26 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,325 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi expressed new concerns about the independence of the Fed heating up again after United States President Donald Trump visited the Federal Reserve (The Fed) headquarters in Washington, DC.

"President Trump recently turned to criticize the long-planned renovation of the Fed's headquarters. The threat to the independence of the Fed along with geopolitical instability made the US dollar index strengthen again," he said in a statement, quoted Monday, July 28.

In addition, Ibrahim said that the main trade agreement between the European Union and the US was nearing completion, with a 15 percent rate for most European Union exports that would replace the planned 30 percent tariff to take effect on August 1.

On the other hand, Ibrahim said President Trump announced a US-Japan trade deal earlier this week, cutting fares to 15 percent for all Japanese imported goods, from previously proposed 25 percent.

According to him, this strengthens the sentiment that other countries can also reach a lucrative agreement before the deadline.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that the Government is still optimistic that Indonesia's economic growth for the 2025 period will be able to penetrate the 5.2 percent target, along with more conducive market conditions in the second semester of 2025.

However, he said positive sentiment began to emerge over some components of gross domestic product (GDP), so that the trend of declining economic growth in the last two quarters could still be responded to in the late half of 2025, such as the realization of several trade agreements and other positive signals, and hopes that 2025 will still be able to reach 5.2 percent.

"For example, the government's consumption component can still be driven through the acceleration of the absorption of state budget spending. Meanwhile, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (PMTB) component has the potential to rise, reflecting on the significant increase in capital goods imports in April and May compared to the first three months of 2025," he concluded.

He added that consumption is heading towards a brighter direction because the consumer confidence index as of June 2025 rose slightly to the level of 117.8 basis points from the previous 117.5 basis points, as well as the real sales index to 233.7 basis points from the previous 232.4 basis points.

Therefore, Ibrahim said that in order to maintain acceleration momentum, the government will optimize short-term strategies, such as encouraging spending, strengthening the manufacturing and labor-intensive sector, housing credit subsidies programs, boosting consumption from the food sector and the multiplier effects of free nutritious eating programs, as well as optimizing the tourism sector at peak demand moments.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading Monday, July 28, 2025 in the price range of IDR 16,310 - IDR 16,360 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, MNC Sekuritas analyst Herditya Wicaksana estimates that technically, the movement of the Rupiah is expected to tend to weaken to test Rp16,337 per US dollar and if it breaks at that level, the Rupiah will advance to Rp16,374 per US dollar to Rp16,425 per US dollar.