Impact Of The Thai And Cambodian Conflicts: A Comprehensive Analysis

YOGYAKARTA - The impact of the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has long been in the spotlight. This dispute, centered around the Preah Vihear Temple, and creates significant geopolitical tensions.

This conflict has an impact beyond the geographical limits of the two countries. This article will comprehensively analyze how this conflict affects the economy, social and regional stability.

The border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia is not only a regional dispute, but also a reflection of the complex internal political dynamics in the two countries.

How can this friction affect their domestic stability? Rebecca Radcliffe, a correspondent for The Guardian in Southeast Asia, summarized it in several rounds.

Cambodia is practically a one-party country. For nearly four decades, this country was controlled by authoritarian leader Hun Sen, before he handed power over to his son, Hun Manet, in 2023.

Despite no longer serving as prime minister, Hun Sen now serves as president of the senate and remains in full control of the country. According to Matt Wheeler, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, Hun Sen is likely trying to strengthen his son's position by fueling the spirit of nationalism.

Wheeler also added that Hun Manet "regulates in the shadow of his father and does not have an independent power base."

But on the other hand, some observers argue that this border dispute could be a diversion that is welcomed from domestic economic problems. Both Cambodia and Thailand are now both facing the prospect of a 36% import reciprocal rate from the United States which will take effect from 1 August.

Also read the article that discusses What Resipprocal Tariffs are in International Trade

Meanwhile, Thailand is facing a period of political instability. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is currently suspended from his post, and his party is accused of being slow in dealing with border disputes.

Paetongtarn, who is the daughter of former influential leader Thaksin Shinawatra, has also drawn sharp criticism for his handling of the border crisis after footage of his conversation with Hun Sen leaked to the public. In the tape, he was heard calling Hun Sen as "paman" and saying he would "take care of it" if anything Hun Sen wanted.

The footage also shows Pautongtarn making an underestimating comment about a senior Thai military commander. This is certainly very detrimental because it weakens military institutions, which are known to be very strong in Thailand and often intervenes in politics.

The recording of the call was a boomerang for Pautongtarn because Hun Sen is known as an old friend of his family, and critics accuse him of prioritizing personal connections above the interests of the country.

Now the Paetongtarn party, Pheu Thai, is in a "very fragile situation right now," said Tita Sanglee, an associate following at the ISEAS' Yusof Ishak Institute. "They have little choice but to follow the military's wishes." In this situation, the government may feel that taking a more decisive stance can help regain public support.

Thus, the heated border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has the potential to largely shake the stability and economy of the Southeast Asian region, including Indonesia.

Economically, this tension could disrupt supply and trade chains, considering Thailand is an important trading partner for many countries in ASEAN, including Indonesia.

Then the closure of border posts and transportation disruptions can lead to an increase in import prices and weaken regional currency exchange rates, including Rupiah.

In terms of security, although Indonesia is not directly involved, armed conflict can trigger the flow of refugees or asylum seekers to neighboring countries, including Indonesia, and threaten the safety of Indonesian Migrant Workers (PMI) in both countries.

Politically, this conflict is a tough test for ASEAN solidarity and relevance in resolving internal disputes of its members. This then prompted Indonesia as the largest country in the region to take on the role of active mediation in order to maintain peace and reputation in the region.

Finally, conflict can also have an impact on tourism. Security uncertainty in one part of the region can discourage foreign tourists from visiting all over Southeast Asia, including popular destinations in Indonesia.

In addition to the impact of the Thai and Cambodian conflicts, follow other interesting articles too. Want to know other interesting information? Don't miss it, keep an eye on the updated news from VOI and follow all of its social media accounts!