Rupiah Potentially Strengthens To Rp16,250 Per US Dollar Amid Global Uncertainty

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, July 24, is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Wednesday, July 23, the rupiah spot exchange rate was closed up 0.10 percent to the level of Rp. 16,303 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed up 0.06 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,298 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that President Trump announced Washington and Tokyo had reached a broad trade agreement, including a 15 percent tariff for all imported goods in Japan, down from the previous proposal of 25 percent.

"The US secures a massive investment from Japan worth US$550 billion in the US economy through the agreement. This agreement opens the Japanese market for US exports, including automotives, agricultural products, and energy products," he said in a statement, quoted Thursday, July 24.

In addition, trade negotiations between the European Union and the US appear to have stalled, following the potential for implementing a 30 percent tariff by the White House on European Union goods. Meanwhile, the European Union is preparing a retaliatory package if an agreement is not reached before August 1 deadline.

On the other hand, Ibrahim expressed new concerns about the independence of the Fed adding to market unrest, as political influence was the main pillar of the central bank's credibility.

According to him, when the independence was questioned, investors were worried that monetary policy could be influenced by factors in addition to data-based considerations, which undermine confidence in the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim said that in the results of the Bank Indonesia banking survey, it estimated that the growth in new lending in the second quarter of 2025 would be slower on an annual basis (year-on-year/yoy) compared to the second quarter of 2024. However, it is estimated that it will still be better than the previous quarter.

This is reflected in the value of the Weighted Net Balance (SBT) for loan demand for ShahartalII-2025 of 85.22 percent, lower than SBT 89.11 percent in the second quarter of 2024.

Based on the type of use, the increase in new loans is indicated to be sourced from working capital loans (SBT 88.34 percent), investment loans (SBT 77.54 percent), consumption loans (SBT 57.76 percent).

Meanwhile, the SBT of all credit segments is lower than the second quarter of 2024.SBT consumption credit in the second quarter of 2025 was smaller than the same period the previous year mainly caused by the segment of motorized, multipurpose, and unsecured vehicles.

Meanwhile, credit growth as of June 2025 rose 7.6 percent on an annual basis (yoy) to IDR 7,956.4 trillion. When compared to the previous month, June's credit growth slowed 50 basis points (bps), working capital loans rose 4.3 percent (yoy), investment loans 12.2 percent (yoy), and consumption credit 8.6 percent (yoy) or grew slowly compared to the previous month.

Meanwhile, respondents in the second quarter-2025 survey estimate that credit outstanding until the end of 2025 will increase with an SBT value of 94.28 percent, but lower than the 2024 credit growth SBT of 95.74 percent.

Meanwhile, credit disbursement in 2025, among others, is driven by prospects for economic conditions, interest rate policies, and relatively risk-maintained in lending.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading on Thursday, July 24, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,250 - IDR 16,300 per US dollar.