Banggar DPR And The Government Agree On Macro Assumptions Of The 2026 RAPBN, The Indonesian Economy At 5.2-5.8 Percent

JAKARTA - The Budget Agency (Banggar) of the Indonesian House of Representatives (DPR) together with the government have agreed on a range of basic macro assumptions in the discussion of the 2026 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget Draft (RAPBN).

"Ladies and gentlemen, the agreement that was mutually agreed upon this time will be delivered in the Plenary Session forum on July 24 and become the basis for formulation in the 2026 Financial Note & RAPBN," said Chairman of the Banggar DPR RI Said Abdullah in a meeting with the Government, Tuesday, July 22.

Meanwhile, the projected economic growth in 2026 is in the range of 5.2 percent to 5.8 percent as part of the discussion of the 2026 RAPBN.

In addition to economic growth, a number of other basic macroeconomic assumptions have also been agreed upon, namely Inflation is estimated to be in the range of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent with a lower limit than the 2025 APBN target of 2.5 percent.

The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is assumed to be in the range of Rp. 16,500 to Rp. 16,900 per US dollar, an increase from the 2025 APBN assumption of Rp. 16,000 per US dollar.

Then the 10-year tenor State Securities (SBN) interest rate is estimated to be in the range of 6.6 percent to 7.2 percent, with lower lower limits but slightly higher upper limits than the 2025 State Budget target of 7 percent.

Furthermore, the price of Indonesian crude oil (ICP) is assumed to be 60 US dollars to 80 US dollars per barrel, lower than the target of the 2025 State Budget which amounted to 82 US dollars per barrel.

Then, oil lifting is targeted at 605,000 to 620,000 barrels per day, slightly increasing at the upper limit compared to the 2025 APBN target of 605,000 barrels per day.

Next, natural gas lifting is set at around 953,000 to 1,017,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with a lower lower limit compared to the 2025 APBN target of 1,005,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

Furthermore, the Government and Banggar agreed on a number of social and economic development targets for 2026, namely the extreme poverty rate is targeted to decrease to 0 percent 0.5 percent, an increase compared to the target in the 2025 State Budget of 0 percent.

Meanwhile, the poverty rate is generally targeted to be in the range of 6.5 percent 7.5 percent, lower than the 2025 APBN target of 7 percent 8 percent.

Next, the Gini ratio index is also targeted to decrease to 0.377'0.380, from the 2025 target of 0.379'0.382.

Meanwhile, the open unemployment rate is projected to fall to 4.44 percent 4.96 percent, lower than the 2025 State Budget target of 4.5 percent'5 percent.

Then, the Human Capital Index is targeted at 0.57 percent, slightly higher than the target in the 2025 State Budget which is 0.56 percent.

In addition, the Farmer's Exchange Rate is set at 0.7731, and the proportion of formal job creation is targeted at 37.95 percent

Next Banggar and the Government also agreed on a fiscal posture in 2026 designed with a projected state revenue in the range of 11.71 percent to 12.31 percent of GDP.

Meanwhile, this revenue came from tax revenues of 10.08 percent to 10.54 percent, non-tax state revenues (PNBP) of 1.63 percent to 1.76 percent, and grants of 0.002 percent to 0.003 percent.

On the expenditure side, the total state expenditure is targeted at 14.19 percent to 14.83 percent of GDP. This figure consists of central government spending of 11.41 percent to 11.94 percent, and transfers to regions of 2.78 percent to 2.89 percent.

Meanwhile, the primary balance is estimated to be in the negative range of 0.18 percent to 0.22 percent, while the budget deficit is targeted at 2.48 percent to 2.53 percent of GDP.