This Economist's Forecast Becomes A Reality: RI Grows Minus In The First Quarter Of 2021 Proven!

JAKARTA - The level of minus economic growth that occurred in the first quarter of 2021 has actually long been predicted by the Executive Director of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Enny Sri Hartati.

In his statement to VOI, he revealed that there was little chance that Indonesia could achieve a positive growth rate at the beginning of this year.

"It is almost certain that it will be negative, because we (the government) calculate based on the aggregator for the same period the previous year," he said Friday, February 5.

For information, the growth rate in the first quarter of 2020 is still at a positive level with a record of 2.97 percent. This year's pandemic factor is believed to make room for growth not to exceed the achievement in the first quarter of 2020.

"Unless there is a miracle, maybe it can (exceed), but I see that it will still be depressed," he said.

Furthermore, the economist considers that the drop in imports of capital goods and consumer goods in 2021 is a momentum to optimize the potential of the domestic market to produce products to support economic activity.

"All countries are now installing protection, so it is difficult for us to find capital goods. This step can also be seen that they prioritize domestic markets rather than fulfillment of exports. For this reason, this is our momentum to create a barrier against the onslaught of foreign products, "he said.

For information, BPS reports that Indonesia's economic growth during the first quarter of 2021 is still on a contractionary path with a record of minus 0.74 percent year-on-year (yoy) compared to the same period in 2020.

Household consumption became the source of the deepest contraction with a note of minus 1.22 percent. In fact, this sector is the main support in the formation of gross domestic product (GDP).

"However, if we look at the second quarter 2020 period, the trend of improvement has begun to appear. This shows that the signs of economic recovery are getting clearer, ”said Head of BPS Suhariyanto in a press conference that was broadcast virtually, Wednesday, May 5.