Bitcoin Ready To Explode? OTC Supply Pressure Could Be A Price Catalyse

JAKARTA - Bitcoin is again attracting the world's attention. After slipping down US$103,000 due to rising tensions in the Middle East, the price of BTC is now stable in the range of US$105,000 or around Rp. 1.72 billion per coin (based on CoinMarketCap data as of June 19, 2025). However, behind these figures, the market dynamics is hidden which is rarely discussed by the public: the massive supply pressure of optical trading activity that occurs behind the scenes.

The OTC market is a transaction space outside the official exchange, where miners, whales, and large institutions secretly buy Bitcoin. Over the past 20 days, more than 30,000 BTC have been channeled into the OTC market by large mining entities. That figure is equivalent to more than US$ 3.2 billion. This phenomenon opens up one important question: is Bitcoin heading towards a new price boom, or is that an unavoidable correction?

When miners sell large amounts of BTC to the OTC market, the effect is often not directly seen in public exchange price graphs. But in the medium term, this kind of supply flow can affect the supply-demand balance systemically. OTC is a favorite track because it maintains price stability and avoids high slippage. But if institutional demand is unable to absorb all these supplies, then the selling pressure can slowly infiltrate the spot exchange.

Interestingly, on-chain data shows that while miners sell, groups of medium-term retail and holders investors actually start accumulating BTC into cold wallets. This creates a market pressure dualism: an active supply side, a passive but loyal demand side. Some of them have even begun to shift some portfolios to flowering assets such as the best crypto staking to stay productive in the midst of sideways trends.

The daily trading volume has fallen by about 8% in the last 24 hours, indicating the market is holding back breathing. Even so, BTC's market capitalization is still rising slightly to US$ 2.1 trillion, and community sentiment remains bullish (82% according to the CMC poll). This situation reminds us of the "calm before the storm" in the past.

The escalation of the Iran-Israeli conflict adds psychological pressure to the global market. Israel's airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities in mid-June created high uncertainty, causing oil prices to climb to touch US$75 per barrel. This combination lowers expectations of cutting the Fed's interest rates, and forces the market to be defensive.

Bitcoin, which used to be seen as a safe haven, is now acting more like a "risk-on" asset. This means that when global turmoil increased, BTC actually experienced a correction. But after touching US$103,000, prices recovered to above US$105,000. This indicates that the fundamental durability of Bitcoin is still there, although not as strong as the original narrative.

Some analysts think that the "explosion" price of BTC could occur if geopolitical pressure eases and crypto regulation such as the GENEIUS Act (US) begins to be implemented. Coupled with the potential for lower interest rates later this year, BTC could be pushed into the US$120,000 - 150,000 zone. On the other hand, however, if the supply of OTC continues to flood without a balanced demand, corrections to US$95,000 are a real risk.

Bitcoin is at an important crossroads. On the one hand, there is great potential towards a new high, especially if institutional investors invade the market again. On the other hand, the invisible supply pressure of OTC could become a time bomb. Geopolitical conditions and the attitude of the central bank are the main external factors that need to be considered.

For traders, now is not the time to panic but it's definitely not a time to be careless. Monitoring volume, on-chain activity, and mining behavior can provide an early signal of market movement. As usual, it is not today's price that determines, but how the market responds to pressures and opportunities in silence.

1. What is OTC transaction in the crypto world?

OTC transactions (over-the-counter) are buying and selling crypto assets directly between the two parties, without going through public exchanges. Generally done by large institutions or miners to avoid an impact on market prices.

2. Why can the pressure of OTC affect the price of BTC?

Although it does not directly affect the order book on the exchange, the large selling flow on OTC still risks flooding the market if it is not absorbed quickly. This can gradually reduce spot prices.

3. Is it a good time to buy Bitcoin?

It depends on the risk profile of each investor. Currently, the market is in a sideways with complex fundamental and geopolitical pressures. The gradual entry strategy or dollar-cost average (DCA) may be safer.

4. Are there other factors that need to be monitored other than OTC and geopolitical?

Yes, the Fed's monetary policy, adoption of crypto regulation, whale activity on the network, and stablecoin movement also have a major impact on BTC prices.

5. Can Bitcoin still reach US$ 150,000 this year?

Some analysts from institutions such as Standard Chartered and Matrixport are still targeting US$125,000 - 150,000 as an optimistic scenario. But it relies on external factors such as interest rates, spot ETFs, and global market sentiment.