Indonesia's Economy Is Predicted To Be Under Pressure

JAKARTA - Executive Director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Yose Rizal Damuri also highlighted the slowdown in Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 and warned of potential risks that need to be watched out for.

According to him, the slowdown in economic growth occurred even before the turmoil emerged at the global level, and Indonesia's economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 was also supported by the momentum of Ramadan and Eid, however, it continued to weaken.

"(Economic growth in the first quarter of 2025) has also been supported by (momentum) Ramadan and Eid. But it turns out that there is indeed a weakening like that," he told the media crew, Tuesday, May 6.

He assessed that the future conditions have the potential to be more worrying, especially because of the pressure from the export side.

"Our exports are not only to the United States, but also to the weakening at the global level, commodity prices will fall," he said.

However, Yose explained that the largest contribution of state revenue came from the commodity sector, so this would have an impact on exports and ultimately further suppress economic growth.

"So this doesn't seem like anything. So it does need a closer handle, even harder," he said.

According to him, this situation is still the beginning of greater pressure and the Indonesian economy is also facing challenges from the domestic side.

"If (compared to the crisis in) 2008 or 2012, when there was a crisis, Indonesia was even called the economic dragon dragon. Economic Komodo because of its thick skin, resistance. But now it's not too like that," he said.

He said that now, the situation is different because the National Economy has problems not only in growth, but also in the fiscal sector, namely the absence of the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) because there have been many changes in the budget allocation in the APBN to date.

"Until now, we don't actually have an APBN. The state budget that was changed last year has various kinds of allocations. Efficiency with efficiency, changes, existing relocations. That means it actually changed the state budget, but until now there has been no new state budget. The expenditure spies have not been seen," he added.

In addition, from the monetary side, Yos also mentioned the discrepancy in the direction of the exchange rate where the US Dollar movement tends to weaken but the exchange rate against the rupiah continues to strengthen.

"Well, that all makes the risk even higher, even more difficult. Meanwhile, global conditions are increasingly uncertain," he said.

he emphasized that the government is important to prepare various things to deal with increasingly uncertain global situations.

"Don't just see that we are still above other countries. But we have to be more prepared to face increasingly uncertain conditions going forward," he said.