Money Turnover Is Predicted To Drop, Airlangga Reveals Last Year's Base Line Is High Due To Elections

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto explained that the projected circulation of money circulation is expected to fall this year compared to last year, because last year there was an election that boosted economic conditions.

However, Airlangga conveyed the basis for this year's reference and previously it was different because last year it was higher.

"Last year there was an election, the base last year was higher," he said in his statement Friday, March 21.

In addition, Airlangga said that the government has provided stimulus in the form of discount incentives this year and the stimulus program is designed to support the economy even though it is more limited in nature through discounts and other incentives.

"Now the government is providing several stimuli in the form of discounts, but we continue to encourage stimulated programs, but they are through discount incentives and others," he explained.

Meanwhile, the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) estimates that the circulation of money during the Eid al-Fitr or Lebaran 2025 holiday will only reach IDR 137.98 trillion, or decrease when compared to the same period last year of IDR 157.3 trillion.

Deputy Chairperson of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry for Regional Autonomy Development Sarman Simanjorang said that the circulation of money during the Eid al-Fitr 1446 Hijri holiday this year is predicted to decrease in line with the decline in the number of travelers.

Sarman quoted based on the results of a survey conducted by transportation policy agencies, statistical centers, the Ministry of Transportation and academics who projected the number of travelers in Eid al-Fitr 2025 to be estimated at 146.48 million people or around 52 percent of the population of Indonesia, or a decrease of 24 percent compared to last year's 193.6 million travelers.

"If last year the assumption of money circulation during Eid al-Fitr 2024 reached IDR 157.3 trillion, then the assumption of the circulation of Eid al-Fitr 2025 is predicted to reach IDR 137.975 trillion," he explained in his statement, quoted Thursday, March 20.

Sarman explained, the prediction is calculated from the number of travelers this year, totaling 146.48 million people or equivalent to 36.26 million families with an assumption per family of 4 people.

On average, the family brings IDR 3.75 million or an increase of 10 percent from last year, the potential for the circulation of money is predicted at IDR 137,975 trillion.

According to him, this number still has the potential to increase, because the average rate per family is taken at least and moderate, so if each family brings an average of Rp. 4 million, the potential turnover can reach Rp. 145.04 trillion, so that the potential turnover is around Rp. 137 trillion to Rp. 145 trillion.

Sarman said that there were several factors that caused a decrease in the circulation of money in Eid al-Fitr 2025, namely the very close Nataru and Eid Al-Fitr holidays, so that those who had vacationed during Nataru no longer planned holidays or returned home during the Eid al-Fitr holiday.

Next is the second, namely with the current economic conditions where people tend to save (saving), considering that in the next few months they will enter the new school year which requires school entrance fees.

Furthermore, the third is the spread of Employment Termination (PHK), and the fourth is the decrease in people's purchasing power and weather factors also affect people's intention to return to their hometowns.