February ICP Drops To 74.29 US Dollars Impact Of President Trump's Tariff Policy

JAKARTA - Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia has set an average price of Indonesian crude oil or Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) in February 2025 of US$74.29 per barrel. This figure has decreased by US$2.52 per barrel from the provisions of the ICP January 2025 of US$76.81 per barrel.

The February ICP figure is stipulated through the Decree of the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Number 90.K/MG.01/MEM/2025 concerning the Price of Crude Oil in February 2025 dated March 11, 2025.

Plt. Head of the Communication, Public Information and Cooperation Service Bureau (KLIK) Chrisnawan Anditya explained that the decline in the ICP was in line with the decline in major crude prices in the international market, one of which was influenced by market concerns over the potential decline in world oil demand due to the determination of the United States (US) tariff for Canada and Mexico.

In addition, the decline in global crude prices was also driven by the easing of geopolitical risks of a potential end to the war between Russia and Ukraine and any indication of a potential reduction in sanctions against Russia, sparking fears of oversupply.

"One of the causes of the decline in crude prices in the international market, including market concerns over the potential decline in world oil demand due to the planned determination of US tariffs for Canada and Mexico to be implemented soon, as well as the potential determination of US import rates for European Union countries to 25 percent", explained Chrisnawan, Friday, March 14.

Chrisnawan also said that after the tariff was set by the US, China set a return rate policy for the US which took effect on February 10, 2025, on crude oil, vehicles, and agricultural machinery of 10 percent, as well as coal and LNG of 15 percent.

In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its February publication said that non-OPEC state supplies experienced an increase in production of up to 200 thousand barrels per day, to 14.31 million barrels.

Meanwhile, for the Asia Pacific region, the decline in crude oil prices, apart from being caused by these factors, was also influenced by market concerns over China's post-publicity economic conditions. Caixin Purchasing Manager of China's Index was 51 which was lower than market expectations.

There is also an unplanned shutdown on the Crude Disttillation Unit at the Kawasaki Refinery, Japan with a capacity of 172.1 thousand barrels per day and is planned to be re-operated in mid-February 2025.

The full development of the main crude oil price in February 2025 compared to January 2025 is as follows:

Brent' date fell by 4.08 dollars per barrel from 79.23 dollars per barrel to 75.16 dollars per barrel.

WTI (Nymex) fell by 3.89 US dollars per barrel from 75.10 US dollars per barrel to 71.21 US dollars per barrel.

Brent (ICE) fell by 3.39 US dollars per barrel from 78.35 US dollars per barrel to 74.95 US dollars per barrel.

OPEC basketball fell by $2.56 per barrel from $79.45 per barrel to $76.89 per barrel.

On average, Indonesia's crude oil ICP fell by USD 2.52 per barrel from USD 76.81 per barrel to USD 74.29 per barrel.