Crypto Prices During Ramadan: Lowering Trends And Factors That Affect Movements In 2025

JAKARTA - Bitcoin price movements during the month of Ramadan in the last five years have shown an interesting trend, with a fairly consistent downward trend. Historical data show that during Ramadan 2021, Bitcoin fell -21.71 percent, followed by a decline of -16.00 percent in 2022, then decreased by -3.73 percent in 2023, and again corrected by -4.14 percent in 2024.

INDODAX CEO, Oscar Darmawan, explained that this decline was not only a seasonal phenomenon, but was also influenced by market psychology which changed during Ramadan.

"Every year, we observe a pattern that retail investors' interest in crypto is slightly reduced during the month of Ramadan, which could lead to higher selling pressures compared to other months," Oscar said in a statement, Wednesday, March 12.

He added that this factor is often strengthened by historical trends that create expectations of falling prices among investors, thereby increasing profit-taking before Ramadan arrives.

However, entering Ramadan 2025, the crypto market faces different dynamics. Bitcoin had surged to 8 percent in one day, returning to the 90,000 dollar level after previously slumping to below 80,000 US dollars. This sharp recovery was driven by positive sentiment regarding US President Donald Trump's plan to propose a national crypto reserve.

"This year there is a very strong geopolitical element in the movement of the crypto market. If it is true that there is a serious step from the United States government to make digital assets part of monetary policy, the impact will be enormous for the crypto industry globally," Oscar explained.

In addition, global economic policies are also the main factor affecting price volatility. Oscar highlighted the new policy of the United States, which raised 25 percent of goods from Canada and Mexico as a trigger for uncertainty in the financial market.

"The economic policy of a country, particularly the size of the United States, can have an impact on global capital flows, including those flowing into crypto assets. Investors need to understand that crypto is increasingly closely related to macroeconomic policies," he added.

Although bullish sentiment looks quite strong at the beginning of Ramadan 2025, Oscar reminded that volatility remains a major challenge. With the White House Crypto Summit scheduled for March 7, the market is still waiting for clarity on regulations.

"If the results of the meeting do not match market expectations, we can see a fairly deep price correction. V crypto olateility can be a double-edged sword, on the one hand providing opportunities, but on the other hand it can pose a big risk if it is not managed properly," he said.

According to Oscar, the most relevant investment strategy in conditions like this is to stick to the principles of good risk management. He stressed the importance of portfolio diversification strategies so that investors don't depend too much on Bitcoin price movements alone.

Diversification is not only about buying a lot of assets, but also about understanding how each asset responds to different market conditions. Wise investors always have risk mitigation plans," he explained.

Furthermore, Oscar saw that the recent Bitcoin price spike was also triggered by the increasing participation of institutional investors who began to take crypto into account as part of a safe haven asset.

In the past, Bitcoin was often considered a mere speculative asset, but is now starting to be taken into account as a long-term investment alternative. This is a paradigm change that retail investors need to pay attention to," Oscar said.