AS Roma Vs. FC Porto Predictions: Overflowing Giallorossi Motivation At Olimpico

JAKARTA - AS Roma will face a big challenge when they host FC Porto at the Stadio Olimpico in the second leg of the Europa League playoffs on Thursday 20 February or Friday morning WIB.

Armed with a draw in the first meeting, Claudio Ranieri's team had to maximize their own public support in order to secure tickets to the round of 16. However, the history of meeting the two teams shows that Porto has always excelled in the previous three duels.

The winner of this match will face the winner between Athletic Bilbao and SS Lazio, who added to Roma's motivation to qualify and potentially meet with city rivals in the next round.

Roma started the first leg well at the Estighdio do Dragxi, where they managed to score the opener through Zeki Celik. However, Porto hit back with Francisco Moura's goal, and it got even more difficult for Roma after flagship midfielder Bryan Cristante got a red card. With ten players, Roma was forced to play defensively and finally satisfied with a 1-1 draw.

Despite only finishing one place above Porto in the group stage, Roma have valuable experience in European competitions. They won the European Conference League in 2022, then advanced to the Europa League finals in 2023 and the semifinals in 2024.

However, their trip this season was not as smooth as before, where they had to beat Eintracht Frankfurt 2-0 in the final match of the group stage to ensure a place in the knockout round.

Under Claudio Ranieri, the club nicknamed I Giallorossi, has shown revival. In the last nine matches in Serie A, they were unbeaten and managed to collect 21 points higher than any other team in Italy in the same period. At the end of last week, they added to the win by beating Parma 1-0 thanks to Matias Soule's goal.

Ranieri can also take optimism from Roma's performance at the Stadio Olimpico in the Europa League. His team have won 13 of the last 16 games at home in this competition, including three consecutive wins without conceding.

Meanwhile, Porto also had to fight hard to reach this playoffs. They came close to being knocked out before finally winning a narrow 1-0 win over Maccabi Tel Aviv in the final match of the group stage, which ensured their pass with a thin margin of Braga.

Since the arrival of new coach Martin Anselmi from Cruz Azul, Porto has still struggled to find consistency. They had five games without a win at Primeira Liga, the worst record in more than two decades. However, a 1-0 win over Farense last week Thanks to Francisco Moura's goal could be a moral injection for the squad.

With their current position in third place in the domestic league, six points behind Sporting CP and four points from Benfica, Porto has increasingly made the Europa League the main target of the season.

History also sided with Porto in a meeting with Roma. Of the previous seven matches, the Portuguese team lost only once, namely in 2019 with a score of 1-2. However, at the three knockout phase meetings (19882 Cup Winners, the 2016-17 Champions League qualifiers, and the last 16 of the 2018-19 Champions League), Porto always managed to get rid of Roma.

Even so, their record in the knockout phase of European competition recently has not been very convincing. In the last 26 matches in the knockout phase, they only won five times and lost 16 times. Of the five wins, only one was won at home to the opponent.

Roma had to lose two key players from the first leg, namely Bryan Cristante and Alexis Saelemaekers who were sanctioned. In addition, Gianluca Mancini, who had an ankle injury in the match against Parma, is also still doubtful. However, Ranieri has an option with the presence of Victor Nelsson, who can fill the back line if needed.

However, two new Rome recruits, Lucas Gourna-Douath and Anass Salah-Eddine, were not included in the UEFA list, while Devyne Rensch has yet to recover from injury.

In attack, Ranieri is likely to return Artem Dovbyk and Paulo Dybala to the starting XI after both were rested in the last match. Matias Soule, who scored the winning goal in the match against Parma, also has the opportunity to maintain his place in Roma's game scheme.

Meanwhile, Porto still cannot be strengthened by Marko Grujic and Martim Fernandes who are still injured. However, they were able to return to field several key players who were rested in the last match, such as Stephen Eustaquio, Tiago Djalo, Alan Varela, and main striker Samu Aghehowa.

Aghehowa may be in a tough period after eight games without scoring, but he remains Porto's most prolific player in the Europa League with five goals this season.

Roma has the advantage of playing at home and being in positive momentum under Claudio Ranieri. Full support from the tifosi at Stadio Olimpico could be an important factor that helps them appear more aggressive from the start.

On the other hand, Porto has a better head-to-head record, but their performance in away matches in the knockout phase is quite worrying. If Roma were able to take advantage of this weakness and play discipline in the back line, they could win a narrow win and advance to the last 16.

Roma (3-4-2-1):Svilar; Mancini,ploys, Ndicka; Abdulhamid, Kone, Paredes, Angelino; Soule, Pellegrini; Dovbyk

Porto (3-4-3):Costa; Djalo, Perez, Otavio; Mario, Eustaquio, Varela, Moura; Pepe, Mora; Aghehowa

Score prediction: Roma 2-1 Porto (Roma qualified for the round of 16